DHM poll puts Braun at 48%, Gluesenkamp Perez at 47%

The May 26 implosion of a white liquor tank at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging paper mill in Longview, Washington, killed 11 workers, in one of the state’s deadliest industrial accidents in nearly a century. The tank imploded at approximately 7:18 a.m. as workers changed shifts, releasing the caustic chemical used in the paper-making process. The dead included brothers Tyler and Brad Covington, 27 and 29. “They went to work together. And then they died together,” state Sen. Jeff Wilson, a Republican representing Longview who also serves as a port commissioner, told The Guardian.

At a hospital about 40 miles north, dietitian Laura Oltmann, 41, had barely begun her shift when an unfamiliar overhead page came through. “We get overhead pages for different types of emergencies. But this one, we don’t get very often,” she said. Staff speculated about a train derailment or a major highway crash before learning the source. “Someone mentioned there had been an explosion at this plant, and that we were probably going to be getting some patients from there,” Oltmann said.

In Longview, a working-class city of about 38,000 along the Columbia River, families waited through hours of silence for word from the mill, where roughly a thousand people worked. “For those that did not get that response,” Wilson said, “all they got was silence.” The disaster struck a community whose economy and identity have long been tied to the paper industry, shipping and logging, and where mill closures had already reshaped working life. By the time summer turned to fall, memorial services had given way to campaign rallies in the same neighborhoods.

Washington’s 3rd Congressional District stretches from the Pacific coast through the timber towns of the lower Columbia, inland farm country and the fast-growing Vancouver suburbs north of Portland. Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat who holds the seat, is navigating competing pressures from moderates drawn to her emphasis on the trades and gun rights, and from progressive voters who argue she has drifted from the party. Republican state Sen. John Braun advanced with her from a crowded August 4 primary in which Braun finished first with 39.7% to Gluesenkamp Perez’s 36.4%, and progressive challenger Brent Hennrich drew 16.7%.

Wilson, who worked more than 23 years cleaning tanks at the Nippon Dynawave mill before entering politics, said he worked routinely with Gluesenkamp Perez’s office in the weeks after the implosion. He declined to endorse her re-election but credited the congresswoman with being “present and accountable” in the disaster’s aftermath and said she asked questions rather than “rubber-stamping anything.” “She’s been representing, you know, from the federal angle, well on this,” Wilson said.

The disaster will likely have an impact at the ballot box but has not become a centerpiece of either campaign’s messaging. “Natural disasters will tend to bring people together,” said Mark Alan Smith, a political science professor at the University of Washington who studies American politics and religion. “It’s something people can unify around … across race and class and other divisions.” Smith said events that briefly unify communities can be hard to translate into partisan advantage. “In order for something like that to affect how people vote, somebody has to channel it,” he said. “It’s hard to channel anything where everybody agrees.” That calculus could change, he added, “if you can somehow link your opponent to some negative aspect” of the event; so far, neither campaign has done so.

In June, Gluesenkamp Perez backed a House appropriations amendment restoring $14 million for the US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, the independent federal agency investigating the Longview tank failure, after the board faced elimination under the administration’s proposed budget. The amendment passed the House appropriations committee with Republican support.

For some progressive voters, the vote was not enough to overcome frustration over other positions. Thea Zaine, chair of the 20th Legislative District Democrats, whose organization was the only Democratic party body in the district to endorse Hennrich, listed several votes that have drawn progressive criticism: the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (Save) Act, which would require proof of citizenship to vote; increased Immigration and Customs Enforcement funding; legislation restricting how public schools address gender identity; and a vote against the war powers resolution that sought to constrain the Trump administration. “We believe in protecting immigrants. She’s voted to give more money to ICE,” Zaine said. “She voted to give funding to wars in Iran. And she takes money from Aipac, and she’s voted to fund the genocide in Gaza. She voted against the war powers resolution to rein in Trump.”

LaDonna Kirkpatrick, chair of the 18th Legislative District Democrats, speaking in a personal capacity, said the dynamic has shifted since Gluesenkamp Perez’s previous victory over Joe Kent, a former counter-intelligence official. “Two years ago, people reported having to hold their nose and vote for her, because she was better than Joe Kent,” Kirkpatrick said. “But now we’re in a situation where I’m hearing from so many people that even if she wins the primary, they will not vote for her. And the frustration is real. I’m feeling that personally.”

Not every left-leaning voter has reached the same conclusion. Tanner Manley, 25, an incoming law student who lives near Vancouver, said he plans to vote for Gluesenkamp Perez anyway. “Of course, I wish more progressive candidates were viable here, and that Marie would take a clear moral stand on Israel and reject Aipac funding the way she refuses corporate Pac money,” he said. “In another race with different options, I’d likely support a different candidate.” The CSB funding fight, he said, keeps him with her. “That might not satisfy progressives watching from the other side of the country,” Manley said, “but try telling people in this district that that kind of fight in Congress doesn’t matter.”

Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign manager, Timothy Gowen, defended her independence in a written statement to The Guardian. “DC has enough career politicians following national agendas,” Gowen said. “Southwest Washington deserves an independent representative who delivers real results. Marie will always be loyal to her district first.” The statement did not address questions about her voting record or the primary result. In a separate interview with Oregon Public Broadcasting, Gluesenkamp Perez pointed to the broader decline of mill-dependent towns. “Mill after mill close in our region,” she said. “It’s just got people really at high anxiety levels.”

For some residents, the disaster’s impact has been absorbed into a register beyond politics. About three miles north of Nippon Dynawave, at the Pentecostal church where Ron Peterson serves as pastor, the tragedy remains part of the community’s memory. “We don’t win politically,” Peterson, 38, said. “We win spiritually.” A few miles south, Chydell Armijo, 35, a mother of two, said she had little enthusiasm for either political party and worried about something more immediate. “I honestly feel like everybody is struggling,” Armijo said. “There is no such thing as middle class any more.” For all the attention on which party will control the seat after November, Armijo said, she saw a divide that would remain regardless of who won. “Our economic system has become difficult, in many ways, for us to climb,” she said.