Zelenskyy rejects Trump’s claim of Ukraine-Russia ‘energy ceasefire’
Energy and foreign policy analysts predicted that Donald Trump’s agreement with Vladimir Putin to temporarily lift US sanctions on Russian diesel imports will have little meaningful impact for motorists and businesses in the United States and overseas. The package announced by Trump on Friday would supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately “to the American and global marketplace,” followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and a further 1 million tonnes after that. The 300,000-tonne figure equates to about three-quarters of what the country would use in a day, according to calculations using figures from the US Energy Information Administration.
Trump said the agreement was essential to reduce fuel prices in the US, which have soared after his decision to go to war against Iran. “Diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my greatest priority,” he posted.
Analysts suggested the quantities involved, and the time supplies will take to arrive, are “too little, too late” to affect current high diesel prices, which observers have linked to challenging Republican party polling numbers before next month’s midterm elections. US prices have surged by almost 70% since the start of the Iran war, to about $6.30 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. In the UK, the average price of diesel climbed to a record £2 a litre earlier in October and sat just below that mark on Friday.
Ashley Kelty, an energy analyst with the investment bank Panmure Liberum, said the deal “is not going to have any impact on prices. The first amount [due to be shipped to the US] is so small.” Kelty said the industry would have to charter vessels, load them and transport the cargo to the US, adding: “That will take about three weeks – so we are pretty much at the end of the month and about a week before the midterms.”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday: “This is good for the American people … bringing these diesel prices down.” The Treasury suspended sanctions on Russian diesel exports until 7 April as part of the deal, while keeping in place other sanctions on Russian products.
Kelty added that the shipments will also cause complications in a global supply chain, with multinational companies having to work out which of their supplies originated from Russia and therefore might breach sanctions in other jurisdictions, including Europe.
Maximilian Hess, founder of the political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory and a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the deal “will not have any meaningful domestic US effect or international effect given its full terms are highly unlikely to be met as a result of the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining which have limited its diesel output.” Hess added: “The whole point of the deal for Putin is that it fails, which he can blame on Ukraine and thus stoke tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy. Indeed, it’s already working!”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy described Trump’s deal as a “weak decision,” saying it would encourage Russia to keep attacking Ukraine. Trump blamed Kyiv’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure for rising fuel prices and said Ukraine needs “a new leader.”
On Sunday, Zelenskyy said he would be ready to stop hitting Russian oil refineries if Russia curbed its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Trump later posted on Truth Social: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter.” The Guardian reported that Zelenskyy rejected Trump’s claim of a Ukraine-Russia “energy ceasefire.”