Apollo CEO Rowan expects about $50 billion to $75 billion of 2026 financing to go toward energy

BP balance-sheet work precedes buybacks as Reliance oil-to-chemicals EBITDA hits record

Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan tied energy financing to AI sovereignty during an interview with WSJ Leadership Institute. Rowan said AI sovereignty requires models, chips and energy, and that almost everyone was short energy. He said a very large percentage — probably about $50 billion to $75 billion — of the up to $500 billion Apollo plans to originate this year will go toward energy.

Rowan identified chips as the other part of the AI boom that Apollo felt comfortable financing. “I believe you can finance chips safely because chips are in short supply,” he said. “Today, you can look out and say for the next five years, just like we’re short energy, we’re short chips.”

UBS analyst Joshua Stone said BP’s management must finish shoring up its balance sheet before it can consider share buybacks. After BP earnings beat expectations for the third time this year, investor attention will turn to December’s strategy update, Stone said. A financial framework resilient in a lower-price environment is expected. BP shares fell 1.7% to 616.80 pence.

Berenberg analysts separately said BP’s valuation discount could shrink as cash flows improve and investors get more visibility on upstream growth projects. They said efforts to cut net debt would remain central to December’s strategy update, while BP’s allocation of spending across its upstream portfolio and an update on its Brazilian exploration efforts would also be in focus. BP shares fell 1.4% to 618.50 pence in a separate market update.

Nomura retained a bullish rating on Reliance Industries after stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings driven by the oil-to-chemicals business. Segment EBITDA reached a record 252 billion rupees, up 68% from a year earlier and 48% from the prior quarter, and beat Nomura’s estimate by 24%. Analysts Bineet Banka and Abhishek Bhandari said cracks were broadly stable quarter over quarter at multidecade highs. They attributed the sequential increase to a lower crude basket cost, better margin capture and higher throughput, while the segment’s EBITDA margin rose 2.5 percentage points from the prior quarter to 10.9%.

Nomura raised its FY 2027 EBITDA forecast for Reliance by 2% and reiterated its buy rating. The brokerage lowered its target price 7.7% to 1,560 rupees because of a roll-forward adjustment. Reliance shares rose 7.6% to 1,252 rupees.

Morningstar’s Chokwai Lee said Cnooc’s H shares remained undervalued and offered a 2026 dividend yield above 6%. Lee said strong results for the first nine months of the year were supported by high oil prices, while the company’s expansion strategy remained intact with a disciplined approach to overseas growth. Net production matched expectations, and Cnooc remained cost competitive, Lee said.

Lee expected energy-supply disruptions to continue into 2027, supporting elevated oil and gas prices in the near term. Morningstar retained its fair-value estimate for Cnooc’s A shares at 28.00 yuan and raised its H-share estimate to HK$33.00 from HK$32.00 because of the Chinese yuan’s appreciation. The H shares closed at HK$24.52.

Berenberg analysts said elevated refining margins into 2027 would likely drive consensus estimates higher for Repsol and could support another strong year for shareholder distributions. The analysts raised their 2027 refining-indicator margin estimate to $15 a barrel from $12, lifting the bank’s adjusted net-income estimate 11%. Repsol shares fell 1.2% to 30.35 euros.

Deutsche Bank analyst Gary Zhou said China Longyuan Power’s earnings may be nearing an inflection point, with an improving tariff outlook in 2027 serving as a positive catalyst. Zhou also cited favorable bidding for mechanism tariffs across several provinces. The stock traded near its historical trough valuation of 0.5 times book value, and Deutsche Bank retained a buy rating. The bank nevertheless lowered its target price to 6.70 Hong Kong dollars from HK$7.00 because of worse-than-expected third-quarter results. Shares rose 1.8% at HK$5.17.

Macquarie said Australia’s new domestic natural-gas reservation policy did not appear problematic for the Australia Pacific LNG project, which is part owned by Origin Energy, because of the project’s large domestic production. The analyst warned that natural-gas prices could fall to A$10-A$11 per gigajoule from A$12-A$13 per gigajoule. Macquarie said Origin was exposed through a low-cost, 40-petajoule APLNG contract and the reset of the Beach contract, which it viewed as mispriced relative to forward prices. The analyst estimated that some A$60 million of EBITDA was at risk and retained a neutral rating on Origin.

Against that company backdrop, the roundup recorded a steep Monday decline in crude futures on hopes for U.S.-Iran peace talks. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said “escalation longs” had peaked so close to the U.S. midterm elections. He saw nothing indicating that the latest attempt differed from previous peace attempts and said positions had never been larger as people placed bets on what would happen after the midterms, magnifying the move. “This next step is either escalation or Iran capitulating,” he said. A 9:09 a.m. ET market update put WTI down 6.2% at $97.62 a barrel and Brent down 6.1% at $106.57 a barrel.

Diplomatic and supply updates in the roundup said renewed efforts were under way to revive peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran. U.S. Vice President JD Vance sent a message to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to restart peace talks, The Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, key members of OPEC and their allies agreed Sunday to keep oil production steady in December as concerns that the United States could resume strikes after the midterm elections kept geopolitical risks elevated. A separate 7 p.m. ET snapshot showed front-month WTI down 1.75% at $102.3 a barrel and front-month Brent down 1.6% at $111.59 a barrel.

A 3:15 a.m. ET update showed January Brent down 2.85% to $110.23 a barrel and December WTI down 3.3% at $100.72 a barrel. Renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between the United States and Iran helped ease supply concerns. The declines pulled BP down 2.4%, Shell down 1.3%, Repsol down 1.5% and TotalEnergies down 1%.