Ryanair expects short-haul capacity to stay constrained into early 2030s

Ryanair said on 2 November 2026 that it was considering a temporary pay freeze for staff and confirmed that airfares would be “materially higher” next summer, citing a sharp rise in fuel costs following the US-Israel war with Iran. The airline said the anticipated fare increase was unlikely to be enough to cover the higher fuel costs, which it cited as the reason for looking into pay freezes. Ryanair forecast its short-term fuel bill would be €2bn (£1.6bn) higher, and Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said airfares would have to rise by “double-digits” to help cover the cost.

Ryanair expects fuel prices to remain high “well into 2027” unless there is a “swift resolution” to the conflict. BBC News reported that aviation fuel prices had surged this year because the war dramatically reduced the supply of refined products from the Gulf and increased competition for products produced elsewhere.

Ryanair said it was weighing up freezing pay as “maturing labour agreements” — multi-year wage deals with unions — come to an end, and that the policy could be implemented from April next year. Unite, which represents Ryanair staff, said it had not been told of “any such proposals.” O’Leary also said the company would slow hiring as its costs rise.

Oliver Richardson, national officer at Unite, said the union “hasn’t been advised of any such proposals and we have a multi-year pay deal in place which covers next year. A number of Unions across Europe have the same.” He said: “Our pay agreement was not attached to, nor dependent on company performance. This was something that the Ryanair was at pains to emphasise. As such we would expect it to be honoured.”

Michael O’Leary reiterated a forecast from earlier in 2026 that Ryanair would “need a 20% fare increase” to cover the cost of jet fuel. “I’m not sure we’ll get to 20%,” he said. “But we’re certainly looking at double-digit fare increases across Europe from all airlines in 2027.”

Ryanair said pre-tax profit fell by 16% to €2.4bn during the six months to the end of September, largely because fuel costs jumped 15%. The company said 80% of its fuel bill was “hedged” — bought in advance at fixed prices — while the cost of the remainder was elevated.

Ryanair said it had cut back on winter flights and said on Monday that more cuts would come. It said the reductions were happening across the airline industry, particularly among short-haul carriers.

O’Leary said: “We believe those cuts will continue into the summer of 2027. Over the medium term, we expect short-haul capacity will remain constrained out to the early 2030s.”

Ryanair also said it would increase its use of artificial intelligence within its back office and support functions. Alongside the six-month profit decline, the airline’s latest disclosures covered higher summer fares, a possible wage freeze, slower hiring and further winter flight reductions.

Related BBC News coverage carried alongside the main report said Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary defended his remarks referring to airlines as “high-fare rapists.”

BBC News also reported separately that a broken window on a Ryanair aircraft may have been caused by a “foreign object,” a cause the report left open.