China holds Gulf meetings before anticipated Trump-Xi meeting

China’s import cut spared the world a major inflation spike, Guardian said

China held a flurry of meetings with Gulf leaders on Monday, and The Guardian’s analysis said the flurry signaled that Beijing was stepping up its diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. The activity came before a highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with Trump expected to attend the Apec conference in Shenzhen, China, on 18 and 19 November.

President Xi Jinping held talks with Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq during Haitham’s state visit to Beijing. Haitham’s trip was the first by an Omani head of state to visit China since the two countries established diplomatic relations nearly 50 years ago. Foreign minister Wang Yi also met Saudi Arabia’s national security adviser, Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban, and Iran’s national security council deputy secretary, Ali Bagheri Kani, in separate talks.

According to a Chinese readout of the Xi-Haitham meeting, Xi warned that the Middle East should not become an arena for “great power rivalry and geopolitical conflicts”. He said: “China has always been actively committed to stopping conflict and promoting peace, and hopes to contribute wisdom and solutions to resolving the regional security dilemma.”

After his separate talks, Wang said China was willing to “play a constructive role in helping the region emerge from the shadow of the pandemic and achieve lasting peace and stability”. In his meeting with Bagheri Kani, Wang said China supported Iran “in safeguarding its sovereignty and security”. According to China, Bagheri Kani said his country looked forward to China “playing a more important role in international and regional peace”.

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Monday that China would send special envoy Zhai Jun to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November.

The Guardian’s analysis identified China’s oil purchases as its biggest economic leverage over Iran. China buys about 90% of the Middle Eastern country’s crude oil exports. Between April and June, it reduced its crude imports by 30%, with June purchases falling to the lowest level in a decade. The analysis said the reduction saved the global economy from a major inflation spike. According to some estimates, China’s cut in oil imports shaved $30 or more off barrel prices of Brent crude, a global benchmark.

The Guardian’s analysis said long-term disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which much of the world’s oil and gas flows, poses a risk to China’s economy. It said shortages of energy cause inflation, which risks reducing global demand for Chinese goods.

Tehran and Washington were locked in intensive talks toward an agreement that could include reopening the Strait. Trump had repeatedly threatened to renew military action against Iran after Tuesday’s midterm elections in the US. The analysis said renewed action would cause alarm in Beijing.

The analysis also said China benefited from the damage the fighting had done to the US’s global reputation. According to findings published in July by the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based thinktank, China was viewed more favourably than the US in a majority of 36 countries surveyed.

China’s earlier regional diplomacy also figured in the analysis. It said China was credited with pushing Tehran toward ceasefire talks in Pakistan after the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran in February, a contribution it said bolstered China’s status as a regional mediator. The analysis also said Beijing brokered a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, though China’s diplomatic impact in the region had been limited since then.

The analysis said China’s diplomatic efforts had been muted as the war dragged on. It said Beijing had otherwise done little to broker peace, partly because China did not view the conflict as its responsibility to resolve. In March, Wang said the war “should never have happened” and that the US and Israel would find “no popular support” for the strikes.

Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based scholar of international relations, said Beijing’s influence in the Middle East was “no longer what it used to be”. He added: “Given China’s increased investment and trade in the region … its influence cannot be ignored.” Shen said China’s desire to improve diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern countries as well as the US represented “mutually reinforcing” trends.

The Guardian’s analysis said Trump’s desperation to reach a Middle East deal might give China an opportunity to present itself as a regional peacemaker and bolster Xi’s status before the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting. Senior China correspondent Amy Hawkins described the outreach as a diplomatic salvo aimed at wooing Gulf leaders and bolstering China’s regional influence.