Democrats win three seats in Republican-redrawn Florida districts

Texas and North Carolina districts also appear winnable for Democrats

On Tuesday night, Democrats had won three of the four congressional seats that Florida Republicans had redrawn this year to favor their party and were narrowly leading the fourth, according to The Guardian. Kathy Castor, Pia Dandiya and Jared Moskowitz were projected to win the 14th, 22nd and 25th districts, while Democrat Darren Soto was leading in the 9th.

A photograph published with The Guardian’s report showed Kathy Castor acknowledging victory with her supporters in Tampa on Tuesday night.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republicans who control the state legislature redrew the state’s congressional map earlier this year, creating four new districts — the 9th, 14th, 22nd and 25th — that favored Republicans. The Guardian said that, had the districts been in place in 2024, Donald Trump would have won all but one by double digits and the final district by about nine points.

Tuesday’s results ran against that expectation. Democrats were projected to take the 14th, 22nd and 25th, while Soto held a narrow lead in the 9th. The three projected wins and the narrow Democratic lead in the remaining district showed that the new map was not delivering the Republican advantage described in the earlier hypothetical.

The victories came during what appeared to be a strong night for Democrats in Florida. The Guardian said Trump had won Florida easily in 2024 and in the election four years earlier, while DeSantis had won the state by nearly 20 points. Barack Obama had won Florida twice.

Florida’s contests were part of a nationwide effort by Trump and allies to redraw congressional districts. Republicans in Texas, Florida, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee and North Carolina were among those that had redrawn districts in their favor, according to The Guardian. Some new districts in Texas and North Carolina also appeared winnable for Democrats, leaving the broader mapmaking outcome unsettled.

Nicholas Stephanopoulos, an election law professor at Harvard, cautioned against drawing the wrong conclusion from the Democratic wins. He wrote on X: “Gerrymandering isn’t yielding the gains GOP hoped … IN A BLUE WAVE ENVIRONMENT,” followed by, “In a NEUTRAL environment, they’d be gaining around nine seats net. Even in this environment, their new maps will perform better than their old maps would have.”

Stephanopoulos’s assessment distinguished between the result in one state and the maps’ performance nationwide. He said three projected Democratic wins did not establish that the new lines would leave Republicans worse off than the old map.

Other Florida races were close. Incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Angie Nixon in the Senate race, while Republican Byron Donalds barely won the gubernatorial contest. The Guardian said few observers initially believed the governor’s race would be close.

Tuesday’s results did not settle the national redistricting contest, and Florida’s fourth seat remained undecided in the projections. For Republicans in Florida, though, the central outcome was clear: three of the four districts they had redrawn in their favor were projected to go Democratic, with Darren Soto narrowly ahead in the 9th.