Public inquiry urges Australia to scrap AUKUS submarine agreement

Inquiry estimates an additional $180bn for nuclear waste; no permanent site identified

Peter Garrett and Chris Barrie led a public inquiry into Australia’s $368bn AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement, with the panel dominated by critics of the deal with the UK and US. Its report, titled Surrendering Australia: the Aukus Deception, called the plan “the worst, riskiest and most costly defence decision ever made by an Australian government” and urged immediate termination.

The inquiry recommended suspending plans for new bases and convening a royal commission into the agreement signed by the former Morrison government. Beyond the submarine purchase, the report called for a rework of the agreement’s second pillar, which covers technology and defence capability sharing, and for a fundamental recalibration of Australia’s relationship with Beijing.

After hearings around the country and more than 1,000 public submissions, the inquiry highlighted a lack of scrutiny and oversight over the five years since AUKUS was announced. It called for the auditor general and federal parliament to launch independent reviews.

The inquiry estimated an additional $180bn would be needed to deal with nuclear waste because of AUKUS. It said Australia had not identified a permanent storage site for nuclear waste generated by the submarine fleet, including high-level radioactive waste from the reactor core and spent fuel that will remain toxic for thousands of years. The government’s preferred measure of the total cost of the agreement is 0.15% of GDP over its lifetime.

The report said Australia risks being dragged into military conflict with China because of the presence of powerful nuclear submarines. It also said AUKUS badly undermines Australia’s sovereignty and undercuts longstanding commitments to nuclear non-proliferation.

Garrett told the National Press Club in Canberra that Labor had failed to conduct a thorough review since coming to power. “Since coming to power, Labor has failed to conduct a thorough review of this most significant of defence agreements,” he said. “Conceived in secret, Aukus has spurned established defence and parliamentary oversight practices.”

Barrie, who served as chief of defence between 1998 and 2002, said the submarine plan could not stand. “The Aukus submarine plan is not tenable,” he said. “It’s time for our government to take the lead on this matter. Scrap the Aukus submarine plan now, and rebuild national security decision-making processes.”

Garrett said the Stirling defence precinct in Perth risked becoming a “de facto US base” hosting as many as 2,000 serving American personnel. He said nearby communities, including Rockingham and Fremantle, would become targets for attack.

Labor agreed to support the deal for Australia to acquire nuclear submarines, which was negotiated under Morrison with then-US president Joe Biden and UK prime minister Boris Johnson. As part of the agreement, Australia is funding upgrades to the US defence industrial base and is due to start receiving secondhand Virginia-class nuclear submarines around 2032.

Delays and cost blowouts in production of submarines for the US Navy have led to scepticism that Australia will receive the in-service boats. The first Virginia-class nuclear submarine from the US is due to arrive in Australia in 2032, with another arriving every four years, before the Australian-built model is ready for operations. The bespoke SSN Aukus model is due to come online in 2042.

Former prime ministers Paul Keating and Malcolm Turnbull, former foreign affairs ministers Gareth Evans and Bob Carr, environmental and security campaigners, and some within Labor believe AUKUS is not in Australia’s national interest. Turnbull said faith in the agreement was “stark staring bonkers.”

Garrett warned that any certainty the US president would eventually agree to send submarines to Australia could not be guaranteed. “There are no refunds, no enforceable obligations on partner countries, and no recourse if things go wrong,” he said.

The UK parliament held a year-long review of the agreement. After an inquiry by the Pentagon in 2025, Donald Trump agreed to support AUKUS.