Turkey unveils 2040 energy plan to shift from coal ahead of COP31 summit

Minister says $500 billion in investment is needed to fund the shift

Turkey’s energy minister has laid out a plan to shift the country away from coal and toward electrified energy use as it prepares to host the COP31 climate summit, where world leaders are due next week in the Mediterranean city of Antalya. The National Energy Plan 2040, presented Friday by Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, aims to cut Turkey’s emissions 40% by 2040 and help fulfill its pledge to reach net zero emissions by 2053, he said.

The hosting of the annual environmental conference has thrown a spotlight on Turkey’s own coal, oil and gas usage. Turkey is Europe’s largest coal power generator, according to the energy think tank Ember, and the Turkish Energy Ministry says coal remained the country’s largest source of power last year, accounting for 33% of generation. The share of solar and wind in electricity generation stood at nearly 23%.

Bayraktar revealed the plan to reporters in a presentation made public Friday in Istanbul. He said Turkey would aim to transition from coal to cleaner energy sources — a process known as electrification.

“When we reach 2040 we are going to reduce our emissions by 40%. This big change in electrification will make this happen,” Bayraktar said, adding that the use of solar and wind energy sources would more than quadruple over the next 13 years.

“Our aim is to reach 36% electrification by the year 2040,” he told a news conference in Istanbul. Using transport as an example, Bayraktar said the number of electric cars on Turkey’s roads would increase from around 500,000 to 20 million over the next 13 years.

The aim of the plan is to produce a “paradigm shift” in how energy is used in Turkey, the minister said. “We have a huge project list ahead of us,” he added.

Such a shift would require a huge level of investment: $500 billion over the next 13 years, according to Bayraktar, with some $210 billion of that coming from Turkish public sector companies and much of the rest from foreign investment.

“If the world is serious about carbon neutrality and if we would like to fund (fighting) climate change and global warming, we need to find the money,” he said. “Everyone needs to take some responsibility and provide money for that.”

Bayraktar also emphasized the importance of a transition from coal to clean energy that would not negatively impact communities reliant on mines and power stations for employment. “We are looking for a just transition from coal to relatively cleaner sources of energy… but we need coal for security of supply,” he said.

Coal mining is providing at least 30,000 to 40,000 people with employment and labor opportunities, Bayraktar said. “How are we going to make these miners into AI experts or high-tech experts? It’s not going to be easy. We need a just transition period,” he said.

Despite aiming to break away from coal, Turkey will remain tied to other fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, for the foreseeable future. The country recently started drilling gas reserves in the Black Sea, and Bayraktar said production would double to 7.5 billion cubic meters annually in the coming years.

Nuclear power is another key area. The Akkuyu nuclear power plant on the Mediterranean coast is nearing operation, and there are plans for another nuclear station by the Black Sea. Bayraktar said the plants would contribute toward what he called the “very ambitious target” of Turkey becoming energy independent by 2040.

Turning to what he described as “turbulent times” facing energy markets, Bayraktar said sanctions around the wars in Ukraine and Iran were impeding efforts to fight global warming. “We are trying to become carbon neutral in less than three decades’ time and with all these difficulties it’s very difficult to achieve this,” he said.

The Climate Action Tracker, which measures countries’ progress against the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, rates Turkey’s climate targets and policies as “critically insufficient.” The agreement set a target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with the early 1800s.

Looking ahead to COP31, Bayraktar said his key message would be for countries to adopt “responsive and realistic policies” to achieve carbon neutrality.