China's clean-tech exports surpassed $220 billion in 2025

China’s 2026 plan makes its first pledge to lead global climate governance

In a Guardian report published November 10, 2026, former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the United States and other countries must follow China’s lead in green energy. Speaking to The Guardian as Cop31 opened in Turkey, Kerry said governments that did not embrace low-carbon power and rapid electrification would lose economically and put the climate in greater danger.

China’s latest five-year plan, adopted in March 2026, pledged for the first time to “actively participate in and lead global climate governance.” The Guardian said Cop31 could provide the first indications that Beijing was prepared to put that language into action, noting that the country had historically been reluctant to do so.

The Guardian characterized green energy as a vital component of the export engine that had kept China’s sluggish post-pandemic economy on track. The report contrasted export success with China’s failure to significantly boost domestic general consumption, describing the shortfall as a structural weakness that had persistently vexed leaders.

The Guardian reported that clean-technology exports surpassed $220 billion in 2025 and were expected to grow again that year. China, the world’s largest emitter, has become the leading supplier of clean-energy technology, the report said. The country accounts for about 85% of solar production capacity and 80% of lithium-ion battery supply-chain production capacity; nearly 75% of electric cars were manufactured in China in 2025.

Sheep grazing beneath solar panels at one of the world’s largest solar bases in Hainan Tibetan autonomous prefecture, Qinghai province, China. Photograph: Go Nakamura/Reuters.

Electric cars imported from China at Southampton docks, UK. Photograph: Filby Photography/Alamy.

Kerry said smart moves in the sector could position China as a linchpin in a future “electrostate” world order, persuade rivals to cooperate and solidify Beijing’s influence in the global south. He said other countries, including the United States under President Donald Trump, had fallen badly behind. “The only country that has hugely accelerated is China. The rest of the world is stumbling along while Mother Nature is sending us more powerful signals every week, every day,” he said.

Kerry said China’s drive had followed a recognition of its dependence on foreign oil and gas. “[China] realised suddenly they had way too much dependency on oil and gas from other places, and they decided they needed to be independent,” he said. “Other countries, since the war in Iran, and since the strait of Hormuz has been interrupted, have made a similar decision, and they’re moving independently.” He added: “There’s been a massive uptick in deployment of renewables. Thank you, Donald Trump.”

Kerry argued that governments without free and fair elections could also adopt low-carbon growth after seeing China’s economic gains. “They’ll see where the market is going, and they will recognise where the cheaper alternatives are. Even they can read a spreadsheet, and understand where costs are exorbitant [in fossil fuels], and where you have a better deal,” he said. “Right now, renewables together with storage, together with some transitional gas, is cheaper and more effective, than just going with fossil fuels.”

Kerry described that shift as a global move toward electric power. “The marketplace has made its decision and globally is moving to electrons, and electrostate status. People are going to electricity and they’re going to try to do that as clean as humanly possible. That’s the choice that I see being implemented in many different places. It is unstoppable.”

John Kerry, then special envoy for climate, speaking in Washington in 2024. Photograph: Jacquelyn Martin/AP.

China has told Cop31 it wants the summit to discuss the free flow of green technology amid what it calls “intensifying” geopolitical conflicts. The reference is widely seen as pointing to US and EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and solar products. Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute framed the stakes as a choice for Beijing: “In a world where climate action was once seen as a constraint on growth but is now increasingly a driver of it, China faces a singular question: will it step into a leadership role not out of obligation, but out of self-interest?”

The Cop31 presidency has promised a conference centered on “implementation and acceleration” of the green transition. Carbon Brief analysis found that China’s emissions had been in a “flat or falling” trend since March 2024. The Guardian linked the trend to what it described as China leading the world in implementing and accelerating the green transition.

Kevin Tu of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said the transition is “central to economic modernisation and energy security, with significant implications for international influence.” He said wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and their effects on oil and gas supplies have hardened Beijing’s position.

Isabel Hilton, founder of the environment outlet China Dialogue, said the shift also carries geopolitical consequences. Under the fossil-fuel system, the US dollar’s role in global oil trading gave Washington “what has been termed the exorbitant privilege of being the global lender of last resort,” she said. Without that advantage, the US position would look weaker; combined with China’s dominance in clean-technology supply chains, US dominance would look more vulnerable, according to Hilton.

President Xi Jinping describes China as a “doer and go-getter working for the cause of global development,” and Chinese state media highlight renewable projects in Indonesia, Pakistan and Kenya. A recent analysis found that the value of green-energy deals in China’s Belt and Road initiative during the first half of 2026 already surpassed the total for all of 2025. Kevin Tu said China was likely to find support from Brazil, India, South Africa and other developing countries concerned about the costs and market-access effects of climate-related trade measures if tariffs entered the talks.

Wind turbines in Zhangjiakou, Hebei province. Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters.

The Guardian characterized China as generally holding back from policy ambition and agenda-setting at climate forums. According to Kate Logan of the Asia Society Policy Institute, China’s attitude toward a global electrification target has been ambivalent even though it could easily meet one. Logan attributed the restraint partly to an aversion to prescriptive outside targets and Beijing’s effort to navigate divergent Global South interests.

The Guardian said the environment needs to change, and more trust extended, if the world wants China to play a leadership role. Yixian Sun, a professor of sustainability governance at the University of Bath, said: “I still think there is a mismatch between Chinese policymakers’ views on the role that China can play in global climate governance and international expectations on the influence that China should exert.” Sun said, “They have to be ready to accept China’s leadership, and I don’t think this is the case, especially for global north countries.”

Analysts will watch China’s actions around climate-finance commitments and support for a “just transition” — a framework designed to secure workers’ rights and livelihoods in the move away from fossil fuels. They will also watch for signals that Beijing intends to bid for Cop33 in 2028; officials are said to be deciding whether hosting would be beneficial. For now, Logan said: “China would be happy with a Cop that doesn’t necessarily produce anything monumental, but comes out with a relatively cooperative outcome … So no major drama.”