Mid-October flu hospitalization rate highest in over 15 years

The U.S. flu season is off to a very early start, and it is quickly intensifying. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posted its latest update Friday, reporting that seven states were reporting high flu activity last week, up from two states the week before. The CDC also said more than 3% of doctors’ office visits last week were for flu-like illness.

Louisiana is seeing the worst of it so far. Flu season “is taking off and it’s taking off in a direction that’s only likely to increase in the next month or two,” said Dr. Fred Lopez, an infectious diseases specialist at the LSU Health Sciences Center in New Orleans. “If you haven’t been vaccinated, you should get vaccinated now,” he added.

The early-season flu activity is higher than what’s usually seen at this point of the year, though the CDC’s update said it is not clear that will mean this season will be worse than others. Dr. Anna Durbin of Johns Hopkins University noted during a recent media briefing that the flu hospitalization rate in mid-October was the highest seen that early in an autumn in more than 15 years.

The CDC estimates that at least 2.6 million illnesses, 36,000 hospitalizations and 2,100 deaths so far this season are tied to flu infections. The states seeing high flu activity so far include California, Louisiana, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Washington, according to the CDC. The surge began in the nation’s South and West.

It is not unusual for Louisiana to be among the first states to see flu season surges each year. That is at least partly due to low vaccination rates, high poverty rates and challenges people face in accessing healthcare, Lopez said.

Doctors expect accelerated spread of flu and other respiratory viruses as people travel and gather later this month for Thanksgiving. “As we prepare to gather with family and friends over the upcoming holidays, getting vaccinated is especially important,” said Dr. Nicole Iovine, a University of Florida-affiliated infectious disease specialist, in an emailed statement this week.

People should not get vaccinated if they are currently suffering significant symptoms, because the body’s immune system is otherwise occupied, Lopez said. But people should get a flu shot even if they already had an infection this fall, because the vaccine protects against three kinds of flu virus and it is not unusual for more than one strain to circulate each season, he said.

Most of the illnesses so far this fall are caused by a version of an A H1N1 flu bug with mutations that have the potential to more easily slip through the immune system’s defenses. Data so far suggests the current vaccine “can recognize” the circulating virus and work against it, said Andrew Pekosz, a Johns Hopkins University immunology expert, during a recent media briefing. Health officials will not know for months exactly how effective this year’s vaccine is. But “right now there is no cause for concern,” he said.

Last winter’s flu season surged in late December and infections were especially intense in some parts of the country, at which time New York City health officials called it the most intense season in 20 years. That season was basically over by late March, and the CDC estimated there had been at least 32 million illnesses, 380,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths.