Summary

  • Three named Latter-day Saints voters in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District — Kimberly Tait, Holly Anderson, and Suzanne Lunt — cite the Arizona Republic’s reported allegations of multiple affairs and sexually explicit messages by Republican nominee Mark Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff endorsed by President Trump, as the basis for refusing to vote for him in the November 2026 general election, framing the refusal in faith-grounded reasoning that includes a scriptural appeal, a character standard from church covenants, and a shared religious identity with the candidate.
  • Lamb’s structural position — comprising the Republican registration advantage, President Trump’s roughly 20-point 2024 margin, and a seat Cook Political Report rated Solidly Republican as of October 4, 2026 — contrasts with Lee’s position, comprising an internal Change Research poll shared with NPR that found her trailing by 3 to 5 points, within the margin of error, against an independent-voter bloc of approximately 195,000 registered voters, the second-largest such bloc among Arizona districts.
  • The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints’ institutional posture — that “church leaders looked into claims about Lamb’s sexual improprieties,” with the article recording no formal action or public statement — constitutes the unmeasured variable that shapes how far the named defection generalizes among the district’s LDS population, two of Arizona’s six LDS temples of which sit within the 5th District’s boundaries.
  • The November 2026 margin will produce the most direct available evidence on whether the defection generalizes beyond the three named voters: a Lamb victory near the Trump baseline would read as a 2024 snapshot rather than a trend; a Lamb victory in the low single digits would be consistent with defection extending beyond the named voters without requiring a Lee victory; and a Lee victory would represent a departure from the trend under which, as a YouGov analysis cited in the article reported, Mormons have become “a little less red over the last two decades.”
  • Lamb’s structural assets — the Trump endorsement, his name identification as former Pinal County sheriff, and the Republican registration advantage — face operational risks that the Republic’s reporting depresses LDS turnout rather than produces crossover votes, while economic conditions named by Arizona State University political science professor Kim Fridkin — gas prices, housing prices, and the Arizona water crisis — could mobilize low-propensity voters independently of the character allegations, producing a crosscurrent the article does not model.

Three Latter-day Saints voters in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District told NPR they will not vote for Republican nominee Mark Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff endorsed by President Trump, in the November 2026 general election, citing Arizona Republic allegations that Lamb had multiple affairs and sent sexually explicit messages to a woman outside his marriage, then threatened law enforcement if she spoke publicly about it. The voters framed their refusal in faith-grounded reasoning — a scriptural appeal, a character standard from church covenants, and a shared religious identity with the candidate — that tests a question the November 2026 result will be the first to answer with measurable evidence: whether the broader LDS vote in the district follows the three named voters, holds to the Trump baseline, or splits along a new line. Lamb denied the allegations at a June event at the Encores Conservative Club and did not respond to NPR’s interview request; the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, the article reported, “looked into claims about Lamb’s sexual improprieties” with no recorded public action; and Democrat Elizabeth Lee, an infertility nurse who has styled herself “Nurse Lee,” trails Lamb by 3 to 5 points in an internal Change Research poll she shared with NPR, within the margin of error, in a district Cook Political Report rated Solidly Republican as of October 4, 2026.

The voters and the framing they put on their refusal

The article presents three Latter-day Saints voters as the documented basis of the reported LDS defection in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District. Kimberly Tait, a Gilbert resident who left the Republican Party in 2016 to register as an independent, told NPR that “I’m not super progressive politically and I’m really pretty moderate,” that “the MAGA movement in and of itself is — it’s just really gross to me,” and that Lamb’s “God, Family, Freedom” slogan rings hollow because “the candidate and all that they represent is the antithesis of that.” Of Lamb personally, she said “the dishonesty that has been displayed in his public and private life is completely contrary to our faith,” and she objected to electing “yet another elected official who is accused of sexual misconduct towards women” on the grounds that “that does not speak well to me, to my children. Like, what is that teaching our children?”

Holly Anderson cited a New Testament passage her faith emphasizes: “In my faith, we really stand by 2 Corinthians 13:1. It’s a very important scripture to us. It says ‘In the mouth of two or three witnesses, shall every word be established.’” She added: “There’s been multiple women who have come forth and exposed the things that he has done.” Anderson said she loved the late Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, that the party has changed, that it would be hypocritical of her to support Lamb even though they share the same religion, and that “I vote according to my personal values, and I believe that a leader should have character. I do not align with either one of the parties.”

Suzanne Lunt, an independent who was co-chair of the Republicans for Biden committee in 2024 and who left the party after the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, said “There are a lot of Republicans that I think are really RINOs because they’re not upholding the principles that we’ve all admired all of these years,” and “I think we need to find people, and we’re taught by our church leaders that we need to look at people who have character and who can represent us well.” Lunt concluded: “Lamb comes across as so untrustworthy on a lot of different levels.” She reported seeing “more that feel like me” and added “I don’t ever see anybody wearing their MAGA hats anymore and I think most people don’t want to be associated with that craziness and the extremism.”

The defection is anchored in the Arizona Republic’s multipart investigation, which alleged that Lamb had multiple affairs and sent sexually explicit messages to a woman outside his marriage, then threatened to send law enforcement after her if she spoke publicly about it. Lamb denied the allegations at a June event at the Encores Conservative Club: “I’ve been called a racist. I’ve been called a misogynist … I’m going to tell you folks, these are lies. Every single bit of it.” He did not respond to NPR’s interview request. The Republic also reported that “church leaders looked into claims about Lamb’s sexual improprieties.” All three women told NPR they expect Lamb to win in November because of the district’s conservative lean. None claims to speak for the LDS community; Lunt’s “more that feel like me” is self-report rather than data.

The structural fundamentals the defection runs against

Arizona’s 5th Congressional District covers the eastern part of the Phoenix suburbs of Maricopa County as well as Pinal County; the district has grown rapidly in population, is a mix of working, middle, and upper-middle-class families, is predominantly Republican, mostly white, and fairly religious, with a sizable LDS population; two of Arizona’s six LDS temples sit within its boundaries. Cook Political Report rated the seat Solidly Republican as of the article’s October 4, 2026 publication date; President Trump won the district by roughly 20 points in the last presidential election; and Republicans are the largest group of registered voters in the district. Approximately 195,000 independents are registered there — the second-largest such bloc among Arizona districts.

Kim Fridkin, a political science professor at Arizona State University who has lived in the district about a decade, attributes part of the composition to in-migration: “A lot of people came in from other states and a lot of them from California and they definitely wanted to move to a more conservative place.” The seat opened because Rep. Andy Biggs is not seeking reelection as he runs for Arizona governor. Lamb’s assets in this environment are the Trump endorsement functioning as a turnout mechanism in a district the president carried by roughly 20 points, his name identification as former Pinal County sheriff, and the Republican registration advantage; these are the fundamentals Cook’s Solidly Republican rating incorporates, and they constitute the baseline against which any Election Night result should be measured.

The challenger Lee has built her public case around her health-care background: “Nurses are uniquely trained to walk into a situation very quickly, assess what’s happening, what the problem is, and then pulling together the resources to solve it,” she told NPR. On the trail she has framed the race as “The GOP has nominated an extremely flawed candidate with the kind of alleged flaws that people nationally are fed up with, that people in this district are most certainly fed up with,” and said a year of tens of thousands of phone calls and doors “sets this race up for exactly what our recent polling showed,” because “independents are not for extremist politics.” The internal Change Research poll her campaign shared with NPR found her trailing Lamb by 3 to 5 points — within the margin of error — with Lee gaining traction especially among independents. The article does not disclose the poll’s sample design, weighting, or turnout model, leaving the reported margin unverifiable from the published figures; campaigns typically release internal polling when the underlying numbers advance their message, and the article records the document as-is rather than treating the release as evidence of underlying sentiment. Lee’s “Nurse Lee” brand and her “extremist” framing have not been tested in a district that elected Andy Biggs and gave Trump 20-point margins.

The institutional variable: the church’s posture

The Republic also reported that “church leaders looked into claims about Lamb’s sexual improprieties.” The article records no formal ecclesiastical action or public statement; chastity — defined by the church as no sexual relations outside of marriage — is among the values the church holds sacred, with members out of step with covenants able to have privileges revoked or face excommunication. The absence of a recorded outcome is an inference, not a substrate fact: if disciplinary action had been taken, the reporting would presumably have recorded it, and its absence is itself a variable in the LDS voter calculus.

The church’s posture is the unmeasured variable that shapes how far the named defection generalizes among the district’s LDS population. The voters NPR quoted do not claim institutional endorsement of their refusal; they invoke church teaching and scripture on their own authority. If the church were to translate its investigation into a public posture, the consequences for the candidacy would be institutional rather than rhetorical; if it does not, the defection remains the documented decision of three named voters operating within a faith tradition whose institutional authorities have not recorded their position in the public record.

The economic crosscurrent and the independent arithmetic

Fridkin told NPR that “People are really feeling the effects of high gas prices and housing prices are really high and the water crisis is important in Arizona. All of these things are really hitting people where they live” — “That’s when these types of low interest voters might be motivated to turn out, especially if someone is knocking on the door and telling them why they should.” The article does not connect economic conditions to a measured change in likely voter composition; Fridkin’s analysis is conditional on turnout organization.

A recent Arizona poll reported by the article recorded 39 percent approval of the president’s job performance in the state. The figure is consistent with general anti-incumbent sentiment but does not, on its own, translate into a district-level effect. The independent voter bloc of approximately 195,000 registered voters — the second-largest among Arizona districts — is the constituency through which any effect on the result would run, given that Republicans are the largest group of registered voters in the district. A Lee overperformance of 5 to 8 points against the Trump baseline would be the kind of result analysts would treat as evidence of a durable shift; a Lamb margin near the baseline would be read as a 2024 snapshot.

The article cites a YouGov analysis under which Mormons have become “a little less red over the last two decades.” In neighboring Utah, where the LDS church is the predominant religion, the article reports Trump has faced some of his greatest opposition in a red state. In a purple state like Arizona, LDS voters start to look more independent overall when factoring in a complicated relationship many have with President Trump over his personality and hardline stances on issues such as immigration.

What the November margin would carry

The reported evidence is consistent with at least three readings, plus a fourth that limits what the result can carry. A Lamb victory in the high single digits would track Cook’s Solidly Republican baseline: the Trump margin holding, the Republican registration advantage reasserting itself, and the character allegations failing to move enough of the LDS or independent bloc; Lee’s internal poll would overstate her position. A Lamb victory in the low single digits would be consistent with the character allegations, the economic headwinds, and the independent turnout all partially activating; Lee’s deficit would narrow on Election Day to something well below her internal poll, but the result would still reflect the Republican advantage. Under this reading, a district Cook rates Solidly Republican registering a competitive result would be consistent with defection extending beyond the three named voters — though it would remain an inference from a margin. A Lee victory would require LDS defection to broaden, independents to break decisively, economic conditions to mobilize low-propensity voters, and the character allegations to suppress a sufficient share of Republican turnout; a Democratic victory in a district Cook rated Solidly Republican would represent a durable break with its recent electoral history.

The candidate-specific alternative limits what any result can carry. If the defection remains confined to candidates whose conduct is documented, the November 2026 result carries less information about LDS voting patterns as such; the named voters cite personal character concerns about Lamb, Anderson says she does “not align with either one of the parties,” and Tait describes herself as “really pretty moderate.” Under this reading, a Cook-rated Solidly Republican district that re-elects Lamb would indicate that the defection did not generalize beyond candidates whose conduct is documented.

The asymmetry between the candidates’ positions

The candidate asymmetry is the operationally relevant structure of the race. Four scenarios map the asymmetry. Trend extrapolation — Lamb wins by 8 to 12 points, slightly under the Trump baseline, with LDS turnout depressed — yields a respectable loss for Lee and a baseline win for Lamb. Orthogonal driver — a water-crisis escalation or sustained gas-price spike shifts the economic crosscurrent enough to drag the result below 5 points, with the allegations serving as a tie-breaker rather than the primary driver — yields a contestable race for Lee and a near-loss for Lamb. Discontinuity — additional corroborating witnesses come forward, recording evidence surfaces, or the church takes formal institutional action, producing a wave that flips the district — yields a win for Lee and a loss for Lamb. Reversal — the allegations fade, Trump holds a high-profile rally in the district, the Republican turnout machine reasserts itself, and Lamb wins by 15-plus, validating Cook’s baseline — yields a dominant Lamb win.

Lee needs either a discontinuity or an economic tailwind to flip a Cook-rated Solidly Republican district; Lamb needs only to neutralize both. If LDS voters sour on Lamb while economic conditions favor Republicans, the two effects partially cancel; the article does not model the cancellation, and Cook’s Solidly Republican rating, as reported, registers no such adjustment. First, Lee has built her public case around Lamb’s alleged character flaws while Fridkin named economic conditions as the likelier turnout driver; if Lamb wins but underperforms his baseline by a margin the character narrative cannot fully explain, post-election analysis will likely attribute the gap to character — and Lee’s campaign will have spent a year on a frame that did not produce the win. Second, the scriptural framing the women used recasts the character question in religious terms — Anderson’s citation of 2 Corinthians 13:1 in support of the women who came forward — and the article describes no Lee-campaign infrastructure for responding to the religious register of the dispute.

Synthesis

The November 2026 margin between Lamb and Lee will be the most direct available evidence on the broader LDS-vote question in this cycle. The first-order fact is the position of three named voters; the second-order question is whether their positions extend beyond them; the third-order question is what any shift implies for LDS voting patterns elsewhere — in Arizona’s other districts and in neighboring Utah, where the article reports Trump has faced some of his greatest opposition in a red state. None of those three questions will be answered by a single congressional race.

Cook’s rating and the district’s partisan fundamentals are the floor; the character allegations, the economic headwinds, and the independent voter arithmetic are the ceiling. The reported evidence establishes the ceiling; whether the floor holds is the empirical question the election will answer. If Lamb wins near his baseline, the defection will read as a 2024 snapshot rather than a trend. If Lamb wins in the low single digits, the result will be consistent with defection extending beyond the three named voters without requiring a Lee victory. If Lee wins, the result will be a departure from the trend under which, as the YouGov analysis cited in the article reported, Mormons have become “a little less red over the last two decades.”

Analytical techniques used in this piece

This analysis applies the methods below. Each links to a short, plain-English explainer you can read and reuse.

Consequences & Sequels
Plays a decision forward to its first- and second-order consequences.
Red-Team Assessment
Models a capable adversary probing a plan for the seams they would exploit.
Wicked Futures
Explores a long-horizon, deeply entangled future with no clean resolution.