The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially announced the formation of El Niño on Thursday, citing a warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator that is expected to influence global weather patterns. NOAA said there is a 63% probability that the event will intensify enough this fall and winter to “rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.”
Climate scientists said the natural warming cycle, occurring on top of long-term warming from fossil fuel pollution, is likely to amplify extreme weather across the planet. “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video message.
Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier said the warm deep waters of El Niño bring “a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world.” She noted that in the Pacific region, “it can get dire very quickly.”
The 1997 El Niño, which this event is expected to rival, triggered billions of dollars in losses from heatwaves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and wildfires. Meteorologists said the current El Niño could equal or exceed that record.
Regional effects vary. El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity but increases it in the Pacific, which raises risks for Hawaii and other Pacific islands, Frazier said. The drought-stricken Middle East could receive beneficial rains, while western South America often gets heavy rain and floods. India faces more intense heat waves. Australia faces heightened drought, wildfire and heat threats. Northeastern Africa could experience “weather whiplash” from drought to heavy rains, said Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a Columbia University climate scientist and El Niño expert.
In the United States, El Niño can cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the South, while generally benefiting agriculture. Jon Gottschalck, operational branch chief at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said conditions for grains and seeds, especially soybeans, look favorable in 18 major growing states, but dairy and cattle face mixed conditions, according to Michael Ferrari, a meteorologist and head of research at the investment firm Moby.
The northern Rockies and Southwest, which have an “off the charts” snow drought, could get strong summer rains, Gottschalck said. The most pronounced effect in the US often comes in winter, when the South gets wetter and the Pacific Northwest warmer and drier.
Several climate scientists forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record because of the lagging effects of this El Niño, which is expected to peak in the fall or winter. Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke said “we have pretty clear evidence that the US economy grows more slowly when temps are above normal.”
The El Niño’s early indications — including warmer water pushing toward the surface — have been so strong that forecasters have predicted an ultra-strong event, said Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi. He noted that El Niño forecasts at this time of year are often uncertain, but the current consensus is unusually uniform.
Scientists said stronger El Niños are being predicted as the world warms from the burning of coal, oil and gas. Frazier said it is too early to conclude whether this specific El Niño is part of that trend. Even before its official formation, the event has earned nicknames ranging from “super” to “Godzilla.”