The World Weather Attribution rapid study, released Friday, provides a peer-reviewed scientific assessment of how human-caused warming altered the likelihood and intensity of the heat wave that has settled over large parts of Europe.
The researchers found that the exceptional temperatures scorching the continent would have been “virtually impossible” just five decades ago, according to the study. A heat wave with similar characteristics occurring in the climate of June 1976 would have been about 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 Fahrenheit) cooler during the day, the scientists estimated. Compared with the climate of 2003, daytime temperatures during the current event are about 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) hotter.
Nighttime temperatures, which have limited residents’ ability to cool down and recover between daytime peaks, would have been about 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 Fahrenheit) cooler in June 1976 and about 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) cooler in 2003, according to the study.
Daytime temperatures have topped 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) across many parts of France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe this week, the Associated Press reported. A heat dome — a stationary high-pressure system that traps heat and humidity — has driven the prolonged extreme conditions.
The study’s findings underscore how greenhouse gas emissions are making extreme heat events more frequent and more intense across the continent. Europe has been warming at a faster rate than the global average, and the rapid-attribution analysis published Friday provides one of the most definitive links yet between human-caused climate change and a specific extreme weather event unfolding in real time.