US dealmaking jumps 72% as companies rush to close before potential regulatory shift
Global M&A volume rose 44% year-over-year to more than $3 trillion in the first six months of 2026, according to Mergermarket, as blockbuster artificial-intelligence deals and a rush to complete transactions reshaped the corporate landscape. Dealmakers have largely shrugged off the war in the Middle East and its effects on energy prices and financing costs, the report said.
“We’ve had so many events that could be considered black swans in previous years, and then the markets have just ignored it and carried on,” Mergermarket Executive Editor Lucinda Guthrie said.
The record dollar figures conceal a deeply polarized market, the report said. The total number of deals fell 3% overall, as small and mid-sized companies remained constrained by macroeconomic volatility, high interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty. Large companies with strong balance sheets supplied the engine for the surge, executing transformative transactions while the broader dealmaking ecosystem lagged.
AI was the common theme among the biggest transactions. OpenAI’s $122 billion fundraise in February and NextEra Energy’s proposed $67 billion acquisition of Dominion Energy led a record-high six “gigadeals” — transactions valued at more than $50 billion each — during the period. Megadeals, defined as those over $10 billion, accounted for 42% of all dealmaking volume.
Transactions involving U.S. companies jumped 72% in the first half, driven by a desire to close deals before a potential regulatory tightening. “There is a sense that if you don’t get some of these game-changing deals done now then, under another administration, you might not get the opportunity to do them again,” Guthrie said.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,925.15 on July 8, according to FRED data.
Looking ahead, Guthrie cautioned that sustained high interest rates or a market correction could slow activity in the second half of the year. Skepticism about whether the tech sector can convert the enormous cost of AI infrastructure into big profits is a particular risk. “If there is a correction around that, there is a big question mark about how long the megadeal engine can carry on,” she said.