Nearly 70% of Canadians want Ottawa to hold firm in trade talks, poll finds
TORONTO — Prime Minister Mark Carney swept to power 16 months ago promising an “elbows out” stance against President Trump’s tariff threats, vowing he would never accept a bad trade deal. Since then, Carney has made a series of trade concessions to the United States that critics say are beginning to add up — and that have done little to alter Washington’s posture.
Carney scrapped a digital-services tax affecting U.S. technology companies, rolled back retaliatory levies imposed by his predecessor Justin Trudeau, and halted streaming regulations that would have required U.S. companies such as Netflix to increase payments for Canadian content. Most recently, he agreed to hand over half of Canada’s net revenue from the new Gordie Howe International Bridge to a U.S.-controlled fund for the first 15 years and to give the U.S. a say over some toll rate changes. An earlier deal had stipulated that Canada, which paid for the bridge, would split the revenue with Michigan only after it had recouped its costs.
Despite those moves, Trump on Monday threatened a 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods, representing about 5% of Canada’s exports to the United States, using a Depression-era law over alleged unfair trade practices. The tariff is scheduled to take effect Aug. 19.
“President Trump is wrong to target Canadian workers and must reverse these tariffs immediately,” Conservative lawmaker Shuvaloy Majumdar said in a statement. “And Mark Carney was wrong to surrender Canada’s leverage for over a year and a half, without actually working to secure the deal he promised.”
Carney’s experience mirrors that of leaders from Brussels to Mexico City, where pre-emptive compromises have failed to buy immunity from Washington’s trade actions, the Journal reported. Elevated uncertainty over cross-border commerce is dragging on Canada’s economy, which MSI has reported slipped into a technical recession in June, yet there is little domestic patience for surrender without U.S. concessions in return.
Polling by Abacus Data shows nearly 70% of Canadians want Ottawa to hold firm in negotiations, even if it prolongs economic pain. Only one in five favors further concessions to get a quick deal, according to David Coletto, the firm’s chief executive.
“The mindset of most Canadians right now is one where there is little appetite for anything perceived as giving in,” Coletto said.
Carney said Tuesday that he and Trump had agreed to “intensify” trade talks ahead of the Aug. 19 deadline. Most of Canada’s concessions have not required Carney to spend much political capital — his approval ratings remain high and a majority of Canadians still see him as the person best placed to navigate trade turbulence, according to the Journal.
But trade experts said Carney has few good options going forward. “Will more concessions from Canada get the U.S. to ease off? I’m not totally sure that it will,” said Brian Clow, a former senior adviser to Trudeau. “Canada has more than put water in its wine, but the Trump administration seems totally unsatisfied.”
Janice Charette, Canada’s chief trade negotiator to the U.S., has said that the Trump administration has been pocketing “significant” concessions from Canada and that it would be important to see “mutuality” moving forward. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said last week at the Aspen Security Forum that Ottawa’s pullbacks do not warrant relief. “They really don’t get credit for doing something bad and then undoing it,” Greer said. “It’s just good practice on their part.”
Canada began making concessions to Trump even before he was sworn in for his second term. When Trump threatened tariffs over unsubstantiated claims of an “invasion” of fentanyl and irregular migrants from Canada, Canadian officials announced a $900 million plan to strengthen the border. That did not stave off a first round of tariffs.
After Trump increased levies on Canadian steel and aluminum, Carney did not adjust Canada’s retaliatory duties. He rolled back many of the counter-tariffs imposed by Trudeau and apologized to Trump for an ad paid for by the province of Ontario that featured Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.
Ottawa also halted measures that would have increased payments U.S. streaming companies would have to make to finance Canadian content. The government cast the decision as part of an effort to address affordability issues, but U.S. officials had threatened retaliation over the regulations, and Canada’s film industry accused the government of selling it out to the U.S.
Carney has charted a distinctive course in international affairs, traveling the world in search of new business partners to help Canada lessen its dependence on the U.S. He has called for the world’s “middle powers” to band together to avoid subordination to bigger powers. At the same time, he has pitched a long-term vision of “Fortress North America” — deeper economic integration in some sectors between the U.S. and Canada. While Washington has praised the concept in theory, formal trade talks remain stalled, leaving Canada exposed to fresh economic shocks.
Many of the trade practices Trump is pointing to justify the latest tariffs are retaliatory measures that Canada took in response to his levies, including a ban on U.S. alcohol imposed by the provinces, not the federal government. Analysts said Washington may be seeking to push Ottawa to force provincial leaders to drop the bans and foment divisions between the two levels of government. Carney has said it is up to the provinces to decide whether to reverse course and that, in his view, such a move should only be part of a broader, bilateral deal. Several provincial premiers argue the alcohol bans hit U.S. producers hard and give Canada rare leverage.
In May, U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said in a television interview that the bans were “unfair,” but ending them would not lead to an easing of U.S. tariffs.
“The set of choices in front of the government are frankly very tough,” Clow said.