Kalshi accuses state commission of ‘active voter suppression’
The Wisconsin Elections Commission’s statement, issued last week, cites a state law that disqualifies people from voting in an election where they have placed a “bet or wager,” language the commission said it believes encompasses event contracts offered by prediction market platforms.
“A very strong argument can be made that people ought to be voting based on who is the best candidate for the position, and not on how much money they will make,” Ann Jacobs, a Democratic appointee on the Wisconsin commission, told the Wall Street Journal.
Kalshi, the nation’s largest prediction market operator by trading volume, pushed back sharply. The company’s general counsel, Rick Heaslip, said Wisconsin is “essentially threatening to prosecute or disenfranchise its own citizens for legal conduct.” The company accused the commission of “active voter suppression” and noted it has hundreds of thousands of users in the state. The day after the warning, Kalshi announced the launch of a midterm elections hub.
A Polymarket spokesman said Wisconsin’s statement “runs counter to the CFTC’s established framework for regulating prediction markets.”
With control of both the U.S. Senate and House in play, the 2026 midterm elections are set to be the first in which prediction markets play a starring role, according to the Journal. Operators say the markets channel the wisdom of crowds to forecast outcomes, a claim that gained traction after they correctly forecast Trump’s 2024 victory while traditional polls deemed the race a tossup.
But some fear interested parties could place large bets on the sites to give the impression a particular candidate is leading and potentially sway voters. Insider trading has also become a concern after high-profile cases emerged of people profiting from nonpublic government information.
“The electoral process is not one about greed, and this introduces direct financial incentive, no matter how small, into that process,” said Brian Hildebrand, a 39-year-old Milwaukee software developer. He called the prospect of betting on elections a “perversion of democracy.”
Wisconsin is among several states that have taken the position that prediction market bets amount to illegal gambling. Delaware, Texas and New Jersey are among the states where election betting is illegal, according to the Pew Research Center. In New York, voters suspected of betting on an election result can be required to take a “Bribery Oath.”
The CFTC, run by Trump appointee Michael Selig, has sued states on behalf of prediction market platforms. A judge earlier this month rejected Kalshi’s bid to block New York from subjecting it to its gambling laws. The multistate legal battle is likely to end up at the Supreme Court.
Despite its warning, the Wisconsin Elections Commission noted in its statement that it is not able to police bets placed on prediction market platforms.
“There’s likely a nonzero chance that courts will decide Kalshi and Polymarket are betting platforms,” said Don Millis, the Republican chair of the Wisconsin Elections Commission. “Our statements on this are designed to inform voters and raise awareness that if you bet on an election and vote in that contest, you could compromise your ability to vote.”