Strait of Hormuz crossings fall to 14 as Trump claims U.S. control

Houthi strike off Yemen kills 4 sailors, first shipping deaths of war

Just 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, a waterway that routinely handled more than 130 ships a day before the U.S.-Iran war began in February, according to ship-tracking data. Eleven of those ships took the route administered by Iran. Traffic averaged 26 crossings a day in July and 33 a day in June as renewed Iranian attacks on ships cut short a deal to reopen the strait.

The low numbers underscore a disconnect between President Trump’s public claim and conditions on the water. Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. has total control of the strait. But the figures suggest Tehran has managed to shut down traffic through the crucial energy chokepoint with relatively little military force — only a handful of drone and missile attacks on ships. For shipping companies, captains and insurers, ignoring Iranian demands could get a ship hit.

“Iran is using the fear factor of real physical risk to retain a measure of control,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. “The risk-reward is simply not there for many global tankers.”

Trump pushed back on social media, saying Iran has no way to force its will on the waterway with its armed forces decimated by the war and the country struggling with a spiraling economy. “The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!” the president said, “and there is nothing Iran can do about it.” He ended the post saying, “Praise be to Allah!”

While the U.S. Navy has guided a number of tankers through the strait, taking some pressure off energy markets, it remains an effort around the margins. Iran’s grip on the strait has cost the world more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said last week.

Iran’s attacks have deterred captains from using the route along the Omani coast protected by the Navy, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. Around half of the ships that risked crossing the strait in August chose the route administered by Iran, and the other half went dark, meaning their location beacons were off and their routes aren’t known. Only two of the 166 crossings used the U.S.-backed route along Oman. “The southern Omani corridor cannot presently be considered a reliably protected transit route,” said Dimitris Maniatis, founder and CEO of maritime-risk company Marisks.

The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that the strait has been effectively closed again since June’s deal to open the waterway collapsed last month, derailing a nascent recovery in oil supplies from the Gulf. Last week, Trump said the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports meant the strait was “sort of open right now,” while acknowledging Tehran could still damage ships with missiles, drones and mines.

Control of the strait, which before the war carried about a fifth of the world’s oil, has become the main sticking point in talks to de-escalate tensions with Iran. Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran in April, then lifted it under his June deal to reopen the strait and begin winding down the war. That ceasefire unraveled in early July after Iran targeted commercial ships around Hormuz and Washington accused Tehran of violating the deal. Trump resumed strikes and withdrew sanctions relief, while Iran again enforced its preferred shipping routes, effectively ending the truce. Iran’s attacks have been sporadic: the United Arab Emirates said Iran struck one of its ships on Saturday, following hits on three others last week, and Iran hasn’t attacked commercial vessels since the weekend.

The uncertainty is a powerful deterrent, and it carries a steep price. War-risk insurance for a Hormuz transit has risen to as much as 10% of a ship’s value, from roughly 0.25% before the war, according to insurance broker Marsh — which could mean $3 million to $10 million in insurance costs for a single large tanker to transit.

Continued disruption of oil and gas flows threatens to push energy and shipping costs higher, rekindle inflation and weigh on global growth. The war is already more than five months old, and higher gasoline and consumer prices would arrive just months before the midterm elections.

While attacks at Hormuz have abated for now, those at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea have turned deadly. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck the Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship Tihamah off Yemen on Tuesday, killing four sailors, according to Yemeni authorities; the ship was hit again as rescuers arrived to evacuate the crew. The deaths were the first linked to Houthi attacks on shipping since the U.S.-Iran war began, according to MarineTraffic.

Seafarers on ships stuck in the strait still receive frequent warnings from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy on marine radio, telling them to ask for permission before crossing, while those on vessels anchored near Oman occasionally hear the U.S. Navy warning vessels trying to run the blockade and exit the Persian Gulf. U.S. forces fired on a Panama-flagged cargo ship early Tuesday after it attempted to run the blockade, the U.S. military said, with the crew ignoring warnings to turn back.