Expert cautions against crediting one leader or policy for the decline
The Federal Bureau of Investigation on Friday released its report on 2025 crime statistics, documenting the lowest U.S. homicide rate in 75 years and a 9.3% drop in overall violent crime.
The FBI report draws on data voluntarily reported by many but not all law enforcement agencies across the country. Experts note that national violent crime rates have been declining since 2022 and that pinpointing an exact reason for the continued decline is difficult, with multiple factors contributing.
“The homicide drop is historic and crystal clear. But right now, what’s driving it is about as clear as a glass of milk,” said Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, a Washington-based think tank.
Gelb said the cross-jurisdictional pattern of the decline complicates any single-actor explanation. “Rates are falling in cities with very different public safety strategies, economic conditions, and political leadership,” Gelb said. “The consistency across the map should make us cautious about handing credit to any one leader, party, policy, or program before the evidence catches up.”