NOAA predicts 69% chance El Niño could exceed records since 1950
Tropical Storm Lala was about 420 miles (675km) southeast of Hilo, the largest island in the Hawaiian archipelago, with maximum sustained winds of 60mph (97km/h), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest advisory. Forecasters expect the storm to strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island, with landfall expected Saturday.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Hawaii county, which covers the Big Island, and tropical storm warnings for the islands of Maui, Molokai and Kahoolawe to its northwest. Rainfall totals of 8-12in are predicted across Maui and the Big Island, with up to 25in in certain pockets. A storm surge of 1-3ft is also forecast as the storm comes ashore Saturday.
Noaa’s Weather Prediction Center said Hawaii “faces life-threatening flash floods and mudslides as Tropical Storm Lala approaches.”
Governor Josh Green proclaimed a state of emergency. “Tropical Storm Lala poses a serious threat to our state, particularly Hawaii Island – and we are taking action now to ensure resources are available where they are needed,” Green said.
“Our state and county emergency teams are coordinating closely with federal partners. I urge everyone to secure their homes, gather essential supplies, review their family emergency plans and follow updates from trusted official sources. Please take this storm seriously and look out for one another.”
Residents have been advised to clear gutters and drains, move valuables off the ground, seal gaps in doors and remove tree limbs that threaten their properties. “Stay away from beaches and coastal areas where rough surf and rip currents could sweep you away,” Hawaii’s emergency management agency said.
On Friday, flood watches were in effect for the islands of Kauai, Niihau and Oahu from Saturday evening through Sunday night, and for the islands of Lanai, Molokai, Kahoolawe, Maui and Hawaii from Friday through Saturday night.
Hawaii county’s mayor, Kimo Alameda, said residents should brace for possible damaging winds, flooding rain, high surf, power outages, loss of communications and road closures. “This is a quickly evolving situation and we urge our residents to act now to prepare for the storm by checking your emergency supplies, securing your property and contacting neighbors who may need assistance,” Alameda said in a news release.
“Readiness requires all of us, and with a storm this close, a slight change in its track can greatly enhance rain and wind hazards across the island. We encourage everyone to stay safe, stay connected, and be prepared to hunker down and stay home during severe weather.”
The Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park closed access to the summit of Mauna Loa, Earth’s largest active volcano, on Thursday afternoon, with plans to close the welcome center, all trails and the Nahuku lava tube. “It’s gonna be weird to see a giant hurricane be on top of that volcano erupting! Stay safe, everybody,” a visitor to the park’s Facebook page noted.
If the storm’s center moves over the Big Island, it will be the first direct strike of a tropical cyclone for the island since Tropical Storm Darby in 2016. Two years earlier, the more powerful Tropical Storm Iselle caused widespread wind damage and power outages throughout the island, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported. Hawaii was last hit by a “major” hurricane in 1992, when Hurricane Iniki caused at least six deaths and billions of dollars in damage.
Lala’s approach comes as a powerful El Niño has formed in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with temperatures already so high that Noaa now predicts a 69% chance of a “historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950” when it peaks between October and December. El Niño, a natural climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, tends to promote hurricane activity in the Pacific while suppressing it in the Atlantic.
Also in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Hernan formed on Thursday but was not threatening land and was weakening while moving south. Hernan was about 1,505 miles west-south-west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of about 40mph, the National Hurricane Center said. In the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Cristobal weakened and degenerated into a post-tropical remnant on Thursday, about 500 miles west of the Azores, and did not threaten land.