Analysts expect little progress as Kim’s arsenal has grown
WASHINGTON — President Trump ordered a reduction of a joint U.S.-South Korea military drill on Sunday, citing his relationship with Kim Jong Un in a social-media post, part of a broader push to revive nuclear diplomacy that includes the president seeking a fall meeting with the North Korean leader, U.S. officials said. The next day, Trump told reporters his decision also stemmed from South Korea not helping the United States pry open the shuttered Strait of Hormuz. The move echoed similar reductions in Trump’s first term that were designed to lower Washington-Pyongyang tensions in the run-up to three summits between Trump and Kim. Analysts and U.S. officials said they expect little progress from a new summit, noting Kim’s nuclear arsenal has grown stronger and more capable of striking the U.S. since those meetings.
Trump has privately discussed setting up an in-person meeting with Kim during his next trip to Asia, the officials said, which could happen in November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China. No planning is officially under way. A White House official said Trump and Kim would meet at an appropriate time. North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Most presidents have declined to meet Kim — described by analysts as a dictator estimated to have several dozen nuclear warheads — without preconditions. “It appeases yet another despotic dictator based on a misperception that a personal relationship will actually achieve U.S. foreign policy objectives,” said Bruce Klingner, a former senior Central Intelligence Agency officer in the Koreas.
Independent arms control experts estimate North Korea may have developed 60 nuclear warheads and have enough fissile material for up to 90, though those numbers were first cited nearly a decade ago and are now likely too low. “North Korea’s arsenal is probably in the low hundreds at this point, based on the hundreds of missile launchers it has displayed and the growing amount of plutonium and highly enriched uranium it produces every year,” said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on Pyongyang’s nuclear work at Stanford University’s Center for Security and International Cooperation.
In March, the U.S. intelligence community assessed in its annual threat report that “North Korea remains committed to expanding its strategic weapons programs, including missiles and nuclear warheads, and to solidifying its deterrent capability.” A month later, Robert Kadlec, the assistant secretary of defense who oversees nuclear deterrence issues, testified in Congress that “North Korea’s nuclear forces are increasingly capable of targeting the U.S. Homeland, and its missile forces can strike South Korea and Japan with nuclear or conventional warheads.”
Trump’s first-term diplomacy with Kim produced three summits but no agreement on dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear program. In 2018, the two leaders signed the “Singapore Declaration,” a roadmap for nuclear talks that critics said was weaker than previous U.S.-North Korea pacts. They met again in Hanoi the following year, where Trump walked away after Kim refused to dismantle the entirety of his nuclear work. Then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in organized a last-ditch meeting of all three leaders at the Korean demilitarized zone in 2019, but it failed to break the deadlock.
Kim has deepened his diplomatic relationships since those summits. North Korea has improved ties with China, deepened missile cooperation with Iran and sent thousands of troops to assist Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, giving its military more combat experience. Kim recently reaffirmed Pyongyang’s relationship with Moscow, saying the two countries together “carried forward the history of common struggle for justice and precious traditions of friendship.” Kim met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in June, and Xi is planning to attend a September summit with Trump in Washington. U.S. and foreign officials expect Kim to visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin before the end of the year, most likely after the November U.S. midterm elections, when Republican losses could weaken Trump’s political position.
The U.S. does not formally recognize North Korea as a nuclear power, though Kim has tried to get Washington to do so. “Ideationally, that’s very important for North Korea,” said Victor Cha, an expert on North Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. “They’ve always wanted the U.S. to give up on denuclearization and just accept them as a nuclear weapon state.” Cha added that Trump “has made clear that he wants to meet Kim again” and that the drill reduction “presented him an opportunity to do something concrete to show Kim he is serious about meeting.”
In Seoul, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Tuesday reiterated his call for complete military independence from the U.S. — which hosts a joint command to defend the ally from North Korea — and pushed for a faster acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is scheduled to be in Seoul this week, marking his first official visit to South Korea in five years. The South Korean embassy in Washington said in a statement that the “friendly relationship” between Trump and Kim had led to “meaningful dialogue” and “stability on the Korean Peninsula.” Analysts and U.S. officials said a bad deal could ultimately prove harmful to relationships with regional allies like South Korea.
Trump tried to meet with Kim during an Asia tour last year, asking reporters on Air Force One to “put out the word” of his hopes for a chat. Pyongyang quietly signaled its openness, U.S. officials said, but the logistics were too difficult to organize on short notice. Trump later said a Kim summit might have overshadowed his planned meeting with Xi in South Korea, telling reporters after that 100-minute talk with the Chinese leader that meeting Kim would have been “maybe disrespectful.”