Central Valley residents divided on high-speed rail as costs reach $126 billion
The California High-Speed Rail Authority’s Inspector General has estimated the project will “exhaust its current funding resources” as early as next year, according to the authority’s July report. The warning follows the Trump administration’s decision last summer to withdraw $4 billion in federal funding from the project, citing its failure to meet obligations under the grant agreement.
To help bridge the funding gap, California passed a bill last year drawing $1 billion a year through 2045 from its cap-and-trade program. Authority CEO Ian Choudri is also seeking an advancement on that funding and pursuing private investors; a global consortium that includes a pension fund manager from Quebec is currently assessing financing options, according to the authority.
Eighteen years after California voters approved the project in a 2008 ballot measure that passed 52.7% to 47.3%, the authority has spent about $15 billion purchasing thousands of land parcels and building giant overpasses, rail beds, walls and other concrete structures that now loom over the Central Valley. The work has generated thousands of jobs. The project has not yet laid any track.
The price tag is up to $126 billion, according to the authority’s business plans, with a high estimate of $231 billion. The project’s first segment, between Bakersfield and Merced, is expected to cost $36 billion and open in 2033. A legislative bill said the line should be completed by 2020; the full line, intended to carry passengers between San Francisco and Los Angeles in under three hours, isn’t expected to be fully operational until 2040. Officials do not expect the line to be profitable on its own and view the initial segment as a foundation to build on.
The topic is polarizing in the Central Valley, where construction is concentrated. “You can’t really talk about it too loudly until you know where people stand. I’m pro-train, but it’s a divisive issue,” said Constance Peters, a shift leader at The 18hundred restaurant in Bakersfield who grew up in the area and previously worked for a concrete company that helped build structures for the rail project. “Californians have money. We want to travel,” Peters said.
Construction hasn’t reached the southern end of the initial segment, where intense opposition remains. The route would bisect Shafter, a town of about 24,000 that is the only city on the proposed path without a station. The train would “divide our town in half,” said Gail Alvidrez, a retiree and longtime local resident. Incorporated in 1938 with roots as a railroad depot, Shafter would see existing Amtrak and freight tracks replaced with a wider, elevated line surrounded by 35-foot walls.
Locals worry the project would hurt businesses, since the track’s footprint would displace some. “They’ll have to tear down stores,” Alvidrez said. “We don’t have that many.” At a city council meeting last fall, rail officials presented alternatives aimed at accelerating construction, and a packed audience voiced opposition to the new proposals and to the tracks altogether.
Of cities affected by high-speed rail, Shafter Mayor Chad Givens said, “none of them are being impacted to the degree that we are…There’s no benefit.” The council urged the state to find a route around the city. Givens said it has been challenging to work with the authority. “About every four to six months, they get somebody new in here and we have to start the process again,” Givens said. Choudri disputed that and said the agency plans to reach out to the city in the coming weeks.
“Nobody here in Bakersfield says, ‘Hey, I want to go to Merced,’” said Joe Pearson, a Bakersfield resident. Some locals still envision the benefits. “If I can get to San Francisco in two hours, I’d go on a Tuesday,” said Jeinner Aviles, a Bakersfield resident who runs El Michoacano, a restaurant a block from the tracks in Shafter owned by his father. Aviles has his doubts though. “Will I see it in my lifetime?” he wondered.
Choudri, who was brought in 2024 after three prior chief executives of the project, said he has shaved 2½ years off the schedule by buying commodities — concrete rail ties, wires, poles and ballast — and storing them at a yard so contractors can “pick the stuff up and start laying tracks.” The rail project expects to lay its first track by the end of this year. Gov. Gavin Newsom called Choudri “the perfect steward” in a press release and pledged that “over the next few years, the dream of high-speed rail in California will become a reality, as we begin to lay track, design and build stations, and buy trains.”
Nearly two-thirds of Californians want the high-speed rail project to continue, according to a Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll conducted last year, though more than half believe it won’t be completed as planned.
At an April Transportation Committee meeting to review the project’s 2026 business plan, Democratic state Sen. Catherine Blakespear said: “This is a disaster… I am such an enthusiast for rail and I really want this to be successful and just hearing these things makes it seem like we’re proceeding on a wing and a prayer.” State Sen. Tony Strickland, a Republican, said at the same meeting: “I don’t think this will ever be built as proposed to people in California. I know I wouldn’t put my money and invest in this, but I wish you luck.”
The authority still needs to acquire some land for the Merced and Bakersfield extensions, and station sites haven’t been finalized. In Bakersfield, the project is attempting to use buyouts and eminent domain to acquire properties for the station. Businessman Monty Singh said he is suing; he owns a Mobil gas station on land where authorities want to build the Bakersfield station. “With the money they’re offering, there’s nothing else I could do,” Singh said. In Merced, town officials are balking at station proposals.