Behr reports fewer than 830 Patriot interceptors remain in US inventory
Writing in The Guardian’s Comment is Free section, Behr said that “history will record the war against Iran as a turning point in the fortunes of the current US administration and a grievous wound to national prestige.” Behr wrote that, despite US economic and military advantages, Trump appears “thwarted and impotent” with more than two years of his second term still to run.
According to Behr, six months after the war began, Iran is controlled by “a new generation of hardliners” emboldened by resilience under US and Israeli bombardment. Behr reported that those hardliners are demanding financial concessions from Washington as the price for peace, including “reparations and a right to toll the strait of Hormuz.”
“The war is not over, it has just turned cold,” Behr wrote. He said Trump believes Iran’s fragile economy is close to collapse and is threatening to push it over the brink with what Behr described as “D-day” sanctions. According to Behr, the calculation in Tehran is that American tolerance for economic pain is low enough that Trump will be forced to “blink first.”
Behr wrote that “if sanctions fail, diplomatic climbdown is the only remaining move,” because the Pentagon cannot revert to all-out military action. He reported that “Operation Epic Fury burned too much of the national munitions stockpile.”
Behr described an asymmetry in military costs between the US and Iran. He wrote that Iran can frighten ships in the Gulf with mines and harry neighboring states with drones “knocked together for less than $50,000 and dispatched from mobile launchers that are hard to target.” By contrast, Behr reported, Patriot interceptors protecting US forces and allies in the region cost “$4-5m apiece.”
According to Behr, more than 1,500 Patriot interceptors have been fired in the war so far, with fewer than 830 remaining in the US inventory. Behr wrote that the depletion has global repercussions, “most pressingly in Ukraine where top-end US interceptors are essential for shielding civilians from Russia’s most sophisticated ballistic missiles.”
Behr addressed US relationships with several partners. He said Trump last week “abruptly cut short a joint military exercise with South Korea — a loyal Asian partner to the US.” Behr reported that Trump framed the cancellation as “an amicable gesture towards North Korean tyrant Kim Jong-un, whose regime he judged to be ‘unthreatening and respectful.’”
“Such civility, lavished on a monstrous dictatorship, is withheld from Canada, a benign democracy,” Behr wrote. He reported that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pulled out of trade talks “last weekend, citing unreasonable last-minute demands from US negotiators.” Behr said Trump responded with punitive tariffs.
Behr wrote that European NATO allies’ drive toward defense autonomy “looks less like burden-sharing and more like a hedge against American perfidy.” He said Gulf states that found themselves on the frontline of Iranian retaliation in a war they did not start or want “feel unrewarded for their decades of service, hosting US military bases and functioning as proxies for American interests in the region.”
Looking ahead to November’s midterm elections, Behr wrote that US consumers are “aggrieved by the inflationary consequences of the war, and confused about its purpose.” He reported that Carney and others know that “November’s midterm elections are likely to flip the House of Representatives to Democratic party control, and possibly the Senate too.”
Behr’s column ended with the assessment that “Trump’s reign is far from over. With his hands on the levers of American power he can still do a lot of damage. But the rest of the world has learned to read his lurches, anticipate his spasms, manoeuvre around him.”
Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist.