Tech analyst notes span Tencent AI release, Fed capex comments

Goldman projects Toyota could produce up to 540,000 humanoid robots by 2035

Wall Street and Asian brokerages published a slate of research notes on Monday spanning Tencent’s early-release artificial intelligence model, the market fallout from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks on AI-driven capital expenditure, and the latest forecasts for smartphone displays, robotics, and food delivery economics.

Tencent released its Hy4 preview on Friday, more than doubling the parameters of its previous generation, Bernstein analysts said in a note. The brokerage had expected Tencent’s next upgrade — a model of around 750 billion parameters — to arrive by the end of 2026. “Hy4-preview feels significant in the sense that it’s probably the first Tencent model that’s a serious near-frontier release,” the analysts wrote. They said the upgrade should benefit WorkBuddy, Tencent’s broader ecosystems, and internal productivity in areas such as video game development and advertising recommendations. Tencent shares were last at HK$449.00.

Citi analysts, in a separate note, said the Hy4 preview had further stepped up its task completion capability, with benchmark rankings comparable to or exceeding peers on certain AI evaluation metrics such as long-horizon task execution. Although the model has fewer parameters than Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, the analysts said, the official Hy4 release in the coming months could further improve performance within the Tencent ecosystem and external enterprises’ work productivity environments. Tencent shares were 1.3% lower at HK$449.00.

The Hy4 launch came as investors weighed Fed monetary policy and AI-related capital expenditure. Tiger Brokers market strategist James Ooi said Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments complicated the AI trade. The Fed chair said policy remains unrestrictive given rapid business capex growth, much of it AI-related, according to Ooi’s note. Investors now have to weigh whether capex growth could increase the odds of tighter monetary policy, Ooi said, noting that higher interest rates raise discount rates and weigh on AI hardware valuations.

Asian tech hardware stocks fell after U.S. semiconductor shares declined following Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which Ooi described as hawkish. SK Hynix fell 2.5%, Samsung Electronics dropped 1.95%, and TSMC lost 1.45%.

In a separate note, Goldman Sachs said Toyota Motor has the characteristics required to establish a meaningful presence in robotics. Those include urgency in addressing supply-chain pressures tied to the shift to electric vehicles, hardware and software technology, and management’s positioning of robotics as a growth strategy, the bank said. Continuous advancements in physical artificial intelligence are accelerating the development of humanoid robots, the bank added, with the automotive industry uniquely positioned to support mass production. Goldman projected Toyota could produce about 190,000 to 540,000 humanoid robot units in 2035, implying a potential global market share of about 3% to 8%.

Separately, TrendForce said Apple and Samsung are expected to help sustain demand for smartphone displays through 2026, cushioning the market from a broader slowdown. Rising memory prices and supply shortages are increasing costs across the smartphone supply chain, prompting brands to take a more cautious approach to shipment planning, the research firm said. TrendForce forecasts global smartphone panel shipments to decline 2.5% to 2.25 billion units in 2026. In the second quarter, Chinese display giant BOE remained the top supplier with a 26.1% market share, ahead of Samsung Display and TCL CSOT.

HSBC analysts, in a research note, said Meituan’s food delivery business is likely to continue to improve. “The pace at which Meituan’s food delivery loss has improved in 2Q surprised on the upside,” they wrote. While order growth could turn negative year-over-year in the third quarter on a high base of comparison, continued average order value improvement can drive better unit economics as Meituan continues to rein in user subsidies, the bank said. HSBC kept a buy rating and raised its target price for Meituan to HK$110.00 from HK$104.00; shares last traded at HK$79.05.

Hana Microelectronics’ earnings visibility looks improved, ttb wealth securities analyst Pattadol Bunnak said in a research report. The Thai electronics manufacturing services provider started production in the third quarter for two artificial intelligence data-center-based orders, Bunnak said. The company’s clients have recently increased order sizes after securing more contracts with U.S. hyperscalers, the analyst noted. The brokerage raised its assumptions for AI orders to account for 12% and 13% of the company’s sales in 2027 and 2028, respectively, up from 7% earlier. It raised the stock’s target price to 55.00 baht from 48.00 baht, with an unchanged buy rating. Shares were 1.6% higher at 47.50 baht.

Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed, in a separate note, said Australia-listed tech-service provider Megaport could benefit from any move by Nvidia to pause revenue-share deals with AI cloud providers. Pointing to Wall Street Journal reporting, Ahmed wrote that a pause in Nvidia’s credit support to so-called neocloud companies could be incrementally positive for Megaport’s compute-as-a-service business, potentially reducing some competition. Citi has a last-published buy rating on Megaport and a target price of A$22.10; shares were down 1.5% at A$16.60.