Providence rents climbed 34% since 2020, CoStar data show
Providence, the largest city in the nation’s smallest state, holds its Democratic mayoral primary Wednesday with housing affordability — and whether rent control belongs in the city’s response — at the center of the contest.
Morales, who also works part-time as a professional wrestler, has staked his campaign on rent control, pledging to impose the policy within his first 100 days in office. Smiley, first elected in 2022, vetoed a proposed 4% cap on annual rent increases earlier this year, arguing such policies would slow the housing production the city has begun to ramp up.
The two candidates have also criticized each other personally. Morales has criticized Smiley, who is married to one of the state’s top real-estate agents, for owning multiple homes. Smiley has characterized Morales as riding a national wave of democratic socialism that the incumbent says is inattentive to local needs.
The winner of Wednesday’s primary will face Republican David Talan in November. Providence is a reliably liberal stronghold of roughly 195,000 people. Despite broad agreement from the brightly colored colonials around Brown University to the apartments filled with Latino renters on the South Side that housing costs have become untenable, residents are divided over what to do about it and which leader will bring relief.
“Everybody’s leaving” because of high costs, said Abby Theus, a 63-year-old nursing assistant and Morales supporter, adding that she is considering leaving Providence in the next couple of years. “If we don’t do something, we’re out of here. We can forget it.”
Theus has tried for years to leave her current rent-restricted apartment, which she said has pest infestations, but cannot afford market rents. “Even though the housing you live in may be substandard, you have no choice but to stay,” she said.
Adam Braff, who moved to Providence from New York City in 2021 seeking more space, supports Smiley and worries that rent control would not only depress development but also encourage property owners to take their properties out of the rental market.
Morales, who rents in Providence, argues that rent control can be enacted without hurting construction. The ordinance Smiley vetoed included an up-to-20-year exemption for new construction, which Morales said should ease development concerns. He has also argued that much of the new development in Providence has come in at market or above-market rates and is not yet meeting the needs of lower-income renters who need relief now.
“A lot of the new development that has come into Providence…has been at market rate or above market rate housing, and many of those rates are not actually meeting the needs of many of our neighbors,” Morales said.
Smiley has described his housing philosophy as “unapologetically pro-growth.” Since taking office, he has eased zoning restrictions to allow denser development, sped up permitting and committed public money to developers. Providence has added more than 2,000 new housing units during his tenure, while permitting 726 in its most recent fiscal year.
“I do worry that misguided policies like [rent control] will stall out that progress before we really get to the point that it’s caught up with demand,” Smiley said.
The rental market in Providence has tightened sharply. Average rents in the metro area have risen 34% to $2,089 since 2020, according to CoStar. Earlier this year, Zillow ranked Providence as the hottest rental market in the country and the fourth-hottest for-sale market, based on indicators including how fast listings go and the portion of sellers and landlords offering concessions.
The pressure reflects decades of underbuilding. For years, Rhode Island ranked near the bottom among U.S. states in new residential construction per capita; from 2009 to 2015, developers there received permits for fewer than 1,000 units a year. Brenda Clement, director of HousingWorks RI at Roger Williams University, said restrictive zoning laws have made density difficult and that Rhode Island has invested less public funds in housing than its New England neighbors. The result is rental strain in a city where the median household income is $68,000 and that has grappled with significant homelessness.
“Renters are really strapped,” said Hilary Silver, professor emerita of urban studies and sociology at Brown University. “People are really spending 50% of their incomes on rent.”
Providence, New England’s third-largest city, features a dense cityscape filled with triple-decker apartments, a three-floor New England staple built to house legions of factory workers. A regional economic hub known for its local arts scene, the city has become attractive partially as a more affordable alternative to New York and Boston, Clement said. Newcomers helped the population rise modestly since the Covid-19 pandemic began.
Rent control policies elsewhere have produced mixed results. In Portland, Maine, housing construction continued to accelerate after the city passed rent control in 2020 but has slowed in recent years. In St. Paul, Minnesota, new construction permits plummeted after the city capped rent hikes, even as they surged in neighboring Minneapolis.
“I will not invest another dollar in Providence if Rep. Morales wins the election,” said David Baskin, a Providence landlord and developer for 35 years. “If you want to cap rent, then cap costs,” he said.
Republican candidate Talan has opposed rent control as well, saying he wants the city’s colleges to build more dorms so that students are not using as many local apartments. “There’s not enough housing to meet the demand, and anything that doesn’t address that really isn’t addressing the problem at all,” he said.
The primary election is Wednesday.