Iran war damages UK economy, complicating Burnham’s domestic agenda
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham will meet US President Donald Trump face-to-face on Tuesday at the United Nations in New York, his first such meeting since taking office, with plans for a more forceful approach than his predecessor Keir Starmer maintained.
According to Downing Street sources, Burnham intends to push back more publicly and privately on issues affecting British interests, while avoiding the open diplomatic warfare pursued by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. One source described the approach as a “third way” between Starmer’s deference and Carney’s combative posture. A second source said the prime minister had three ambitions for Tuesday’s talks: to bond with Trump, to make the case for Ukraine, and to avoid any drama.
The balance of risk has shifted since Starmer’s February 2025 visit to Trump at the height of the new US president’s powers, when Trump had just won the election and was signaling strength on NATO, Ukraine, and tariffs, according to the Guardian analysis. Trump now faces persistent inflation at home and a war in Iran that has the potential to derail his midterm ambitions.
Starmer’s “keep calm and carry on” strategy helped keep Trump on board the defense alliance and shielded the UK from the worst of his trade aggression, but it came at a cost: the prime minister often appeared obsequious and out of step with the national mood, the Guardian reported.
Burnham defended Starmer’s approach but in June signaled a different direction. “Obviously the relationship is important to the UK, but not to the point where we just go along with anything they say,” he said. “We’ve got in trouble in the past when that happens.”
Early signals from the White House have been mixed. In June, Trump called Burnham “extremely liberal,” in terms that were not a compliment, and dismissively described him as the “mayor of a town.” Trump remains angry that the UK did not join his strikes on Iran and has attacked the country as a “dying” nation “on the edge of disaster.” More recent comments — suggesting he might not help if Argentina again tried to seize the Falklands, and that he would love to see a united Ireland — indicate his displeasure has not abated.
Those tensions may not necessarily produce a strained personal relationship. The two leaders have spoken by phone twice and are said to have gotten on well. Burnham’s laid-back, confident style is likely to appeal to Trump, who has shown with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani that he can warm to leftwingers, according to the Guardian analysis.
On policy, government insiders pointed to small reasons for hope. Trump responded warmly to reports the UK government was going to “open up” the North Sea, although the decision to drill at two fields has been delayed, and has so far been relatively restrained when asked about the UK’s planned West Bank settlement trade ban. Their meeting will be fraught with tension over both matters, alongside defense spending and the Iran war, which have potential for further clashes.
The UN venue offers an advantage: it is comparatively neutral ground, allowing Burnham to avoid the jeopardy of an Oval Office press conference that Trump could easily derail. Trump may also decide he has had enough fights for one day. His meeting with Burnham will follow his address to the UN, where last year he told world leaders their countries were “going to hell” over their immigration policies.
Burnham’s own public posture toward Trump has shifted. As mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham said the US president would not be welcome in the city, blaming his “poisonous” politics. After winning his Makerfield seat as an MP, he warned against the “divided, dark politics” of the US. But over the summer, Burnham told reporters that “everyone says things as politicians,” and said he would “say what I feel” to Trump while also trying to “find a connection” with the mercurial president.
Trump is in power for two more years, and remains unpredictable. With Trump now weaker domestically, political power in the US is starting to shift toward who comes next, and Burnham is walking into the room with a president who is running out of time, the Guardian analysis concluded.
Burnham’s priority may be on domestic affairs, but his closest aides acknowledge that the biggest weight on the UK right now is Trump’s war in Iran. While the conflict continues to damage the British economy, Burnham will struggle to deliver his promised changes. For the time being, the power still rests with Trump, and Burnham may yet face a perilous path similar to Starmer’s.