Forecasters warn of weekend nor'easter with 70 mph gusts

European and GFS models diverge on storm track and timing

Forecasters at AccuWeather and The Weather Channel are warning that a weekend nor’easter could bring wind gusts of up to 70 mph to New York, Boston, and much of New England, with coastal flooding, beach erosion, and power outages possible through Sunday.

The first such storm of fall, arriving after Tuesday’s official start of autumn, could linger off the coast if it stalls — a scenario forecasters said is looking increasingly likely.

“If the storm nearly stalls, several days of persistent onshore winds and pounding surf could take a significant toll on beaches and vulnerable coastal communities, especially with astronomical high tides coinciding,” said Alyssa Glenney, an AccuWeather meteorologist.

AccuWeather predicted “a long-duration storm for many areas along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts,” with impacts beginning late Wednesday, spreading to New England late Friday or Saturday, and lasting through Sunday in some places.

The Weather Channel said coastal flood alerts were in place across the mid-Atlantic and that winds were likely to bring sea rise up to 3 feet above normal levels. It said uncertainty remained about where exactly the system would end up by week’s end.

“Forecast models are picking up on the low, but two models show that the timing and duration of the storm could differ,” the Weather Channel said on its website.

The European model brings the low close to the coast as a strong storm but moves it more slowly, potentially meandering along the East Coast until it dissipates. Under that scenario, strong winds would have longer to cause significant power outages, heavy rain-induced flooding, and coastal erosion.

The GFS model brings the storm in faster, with the system approaching New England by Saturday afternoon. A faster storm could mean winds, rain, and coastal erosion would be less severe and limit disruptions to travel and weekend plans, though the model calls for a stronger storm by the end of the weekend as it moves away from the Northeast.

Nor’easters are more prevalent from September to April, according to the National Weather Service. They usually develop within about 100 miles of the coast between Georgia and New Jersey and progress steadily northeastward, typically attaining maximum intensity near New England and the maritime provinces of Canada.

AccuWeather’s forecasters agreed that the exact track of this weekend’s storm remained important for communities farther inland. A track closer to the coast could bring heavier rain, stronger wind gusts, and travel disruptions from Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia to New York City and Boston, while a track farther offshore would limit inland rain and wind impacts.