Pacific cyclone uptick comes as North Atlantic records no hurricanes yet
The El Niño event under way in 2026 is on track to become the strongest in at least 70 years, according to the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization, which has warned of flooding, drought and extreme heat through the coming winter. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has elevated the phenomenon to “super” El Niño status, a classification tied to the magnitude of the ocean temperature anomaly.
The WMO’s assessment follows a season of visible disruptions across multiple continents. The Wall Street Journal reports this year’s event has already triggered wildfires in Asia, hurricanes in the Pacific and fishery closures in South America, and is likely about to get worse. The U.N. agency has signaled that conditions are likely to worsen as the cycle matures, with the worst impacts expected during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
The mechanism behind those effects begins in the Pacific. In an El Niño year, the mass of warm water that normally pools in the western Pacific shifts east toward South America. Ocean temperatures are the primary indicator of an event’s strength, and this summer’s readings placed the anomaly among the highest on record, according to NOAA. With the warm water displaced eastward, heavy tropical rains follow close behind, spurring ideal environmental conditions for hurricanes.
The U.S. impacts of that chain of events are largely geographic. The southern United States can expect more rain and storms, California faces increased flooding and coastal erosion, and severe thunderstorms are expected across the Gulf states. The mechanism driving those regional effects begins with ocean evaporation: as warm, moist air rises off the displaced Pacific waters, it migrates north and east and feeds the subtropical jet stream — the high-altitude air current that steers storm systems across North America.
The northeastern Pacific has seen an increase in named cyclones so far this year compared with the annual average, according to the Wall Street Journal. The same jet-stream pattern, however, has produced one countervailing effect on the other side of the Americas. The high-altitude winds generated by warm Pacific air blow east toward the tropical Atlantic, where they suppress cyclone formation. So far this season, no hurricanes have formed in the North Atlantic — a region that typically records more than three by this time of year.
That trade-off, when it holds, can reduce hurricane-related damage along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts while intensifying risk along the Pacific coast and across the U.S. South. The Wall Street Journal noted that the predictability of El Niño disruptions gives emergency planners an opportunity to position resources before the worst weather arrives.
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that recurs every few years and typically lasts about a year. This year’s event is on track to become the strongest in at least 70 years, with the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization warning of flooding, drought and extreme heat throughout the winter.