UN says this year's El Niño is strongest in 70 years, set to persist into 2027

Corn and sugar prices rise on South American and Asian crop risks

The World Meteorological Organization reported Thursday that this year’s El Niño is on track to become the strongest in at least 70 years, with near-certain probability of persisting through February 2027. The Geneva-based UN weather agency said temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean were more than eight degrees Celsius above normal in July and early August — well past the 2°C threshold for a very strong or extreme event — as commodity analysts noted that concerns about the weather are helping to drive up prices for crops including corn and sugar.

The strengthening forecast adds to concerns about global food supply disruptions and rising commodity costs heading into 2027. “El Niño’s effects are very much with us,” analysts at Rabobank wrote in a note.

The WMO said the likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027 is close to 100%. “Never before has the UN weather agency issued such an unequivocal forecast for El Niño or its cooler counterpart, La Niña,” the agency said.

The current event’s intensity is already running well past conventional thresholds. A reading of 2°C above average is enough to constitute a very strong or extreme El Niño, according to the agency’s classifications — a bar the Pacific has cleared by several degrees in recent months.

“The question is no longer whether El Niño will strengthen, but how much heat—and disruption—it will leave behind,” Celeste Saulo, head of the WMO, said.

The forecast has begun feeding through into agricultural commodity markets. Analysts at Rabobank wrote that concerns about the weather system are helping to drive a range of commodity prices higher. Corn prices, which the bank said are also being lifted by supply disruptions from the Black Sea, are up around 33% from their late-June low. Sugar has climbed roughly 23% from its late-July low of 18 cents a pound, according to the Rabobank analysts.

“Concerns are growing that El Niño could reduce [corn] production in South America…which could further tighten global stocks,” the Rabobank analysts said.

Sugar faces a more complex geographic picture. Rabobank noted that crops in Asia and South America are set to face significant disruption, with lower-than-usual rainfall expected in India and the inverse in Brazil. “The expected strength of El Niño increases the likelihood that such effects materialize,” the bank said.

Analysts at Barclays struck a similar note. “Historical El Niño events have often been associated with significant moves in weather-sensitive markets,” they wrote in a note.

Further disruption from this year’s particularly strong El Niño is likely, Barclays analysts wrote. Strong El Niño events can lead to extreme heat and irregular rainfall across the globe, affecting harvests for goods from sugar to wheat.