Former NOAA Deputy Administrator Terry Garcia warned that the Trump administration has jeopardized the nation’s ability to anticipate extreme weather events just as forecasters predict one of the strongest El Niño events in the modern record. In an opinion piece published Tuesday in The Guardian, Garcia detailed a series of actions this spring in which the National Science Foundation began “descoping” the Ocean Observatories Initiative — a network of more than 900 sensors deployed across five sites from the Gulf of Alaska to the Irminger Sea between Greenland and Iceland.
Garcia, who served as deputy administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, called the agency’s actions “an extension of the Trump administration’s broader assault on federal climate science.” He argued the objective was to weaken the programs that measure climate change and then claim the problem is uncertain. “Turning off the alarm does not put out the fire,” Garcia wrote.
The Ocean Observatories Initiative was built over a decade at a cost of approximately $386 million, Garcia said. The NSF announced plans to pull sensors, buoys and other equipment from four of the program’s five sites. The Senate responded with a rare bipartisan show of force: a unanimous vote on a bill introduced by Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) to block the use of federal funds to dismantle the network until a thorough review is conducted. Last week, the NSF announced it would stop the removal, keep the system running, and redeploy the sensors that had been taken out of the water.
Garcia called the reversal a temporary reprieve. “Sensors have already been removed, and data streams have been interrupted,” he wrote, adding that redeployment after removal is not equivalent to uninterrupted operation. The system’s future has been deferred to a yet-to-be-convened panel.
While the array of sensors does not directly detect El Niño formation, Garcia said it measures deep-ocean temperature — the best gauge of how much excess heat the planet is absorbing. Independent researchers, whom Garcia cited, warned that removing U.S. observations would increase the error in annual ocean-heating estimates by 163%, degrading forecasts and early-warning systems that help the country prepare for disasters. In 2025, Garcia noted, those disasters cost the U.S. $115 billion.
This month, NOAA confirmed the formation of El Niño in the tropical Pacific and issued an official advisory. Forecasters expect it to strengthen through the winter of 2026-27, with a 63% chance it will reach the “very strong” threshold — placing it among the strongest events in the modern record dating back to 1950, Garcia wrote. In a world already experiencing record heat, such an event could bring drought, wildfires, flooding, and a more active Pacific hurricane season, with the most vulnerable populations affected disproportionately.
Garcia drew a historical comparison to the 1877 El Niño — known as the “year without a winter” in North America — which scientists suspect contributed to a global drought that led to famines killing between 30 million and 60 million people. “What distinguishes us from the victims of 1877 is not luck but data,” he wrote. He argued that the instruments that provide that data should not be vulnerable to political whims. “The panel NSF plans to convene should recommend permanent protection, and Congress should write that protection into law,” Garcia said.