Mutual distrust killed Chinese rare-earths truce offer before Trump-Xi summit

NPR: Mutual distrust killed Chinese rare-earths truce offer before Trump-Xi summit

• Mutual distrust between U.S. and Chinese negotiators scuppered a Chinese offer to extend a rare-earths truce through the remainder of President Trump’s term in January 2029, according to NPR reporting released Wednesday.
• Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Washington on Wednesday for his first state visit in 11 years, the second meeting with President Trump in 2026 after their May Beijing summit.
• China’s cabinet-like State Council excoriated Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te on Wednesday as Xi departed for the United States; Beijing suspects Lai of seeking to lead Taiwan to declare formal independence.
• U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this week that the two countries are still negotiating a potential extension of the rare-earths truce, and American officials have complained that China has not upheld its end of the bargain, according to NPR.

China’s State Council excoriates Taiwan’s Lai as Xi arrives in Washington

Mutual distrust between U.S. and Chinese negotiators scuppered a Chinese offer to extend a rare-earths truce through the remainder of President Trump’s term in January 2029, according to NPR reporting released Wednesday, as Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Washington for his first state visit in 11 years.

The two leaders are scheduled to meet Thursday on trade, rare earths, AI governance, and Taiwan — the second Xi-Trump summit of 2026 after their May meeting in Beijing, where they agreed to build a more stable bilateral relationship. Both leaders are trying to shore up power at home. Trump’s visit comes just over a month before the midterm elections, and Xi returns home to preparations for an all-important Party Congress. Both governments have projected a willingness to build what China has called a relationship of “constructive strategic stability.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox News interview in July: “Under the water, the Chinese seem to have done a lot of kicking lately. And you know, if we have to, we’ll kick back.”

Trump has frequently spoken warmly about his May visit to China, which included pageantry and a state banquet at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. Wu Xinbo, who directs the American Studies center at Shanghai’s Fudan University and attended the banquet, said it was the warmest he had seen in U.S.-China relations in years. But since then, Wu said, the relationship has grown more “fragile.” “In the last several months, the U.S. has continued to contain and pressure China in economic, technological [and] people-to-people exchanges,” he told NPR.

The U.S. is expected to reciprocate the high level of pomp and circumstance for Xi regardless of the tough negotiations expected, and Trump has publicly held Xi in high regard.

Among recent U.S. moves, the administration has imposed extra tariffs on Chinese exports over forced labor claims, the Pentagon has added Chinese tech giants to a military blacklist, and the Federal Communications Commission has banned new imports of Chinese humanoid robots and robot dogs over national security concerns.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said this week that the two countries are still negotiating the potential extension of a rare-earths truce that would ensure continued flow of Chinese rare-earth products for the U.S. China dominates the refining of rare earths and other critical minerals used in products from cellphones to weapons. American officials have complained that China has not upheld its end of the bargain, according to NPR.

AI governance is also on the agenda. Rose Gottemoeller, a former NATO official who attends regular dialogues on nuclear proliferation with retired Chinese military officials, said China has “been trying to figure out, in talking to the United States, what kind of so-called guardrails or controls can be put on artificial intelligence.” “So it’s a combination nowadays of the older issues related to nuclear stability and new issues related to new technology,” she told NPR. China is interested in imposing safety measures, according to international studies professor Zhang Yun at Nanjing University, but he said there is a lot of “mistrust” between the two countries on the proposed solutions.

Zhang said Taiwan, technology, and trade are high on Xi’s agenda this trip. Discussions on the wars in Iran and Ukraine, plus tensions along the Korean peninsula, are also expected. “Ups and downs are to be expected in a relationship as complicated as the U.S. and China’s,” Zhang said. “The key is to build high-level channels to deal with problems as they emerge and ‘mitigate the negative impacts.’”

Taiwan remains the most sensitive subject. Xi has repeatedly emphasized to Trump in earlier meetings that Taiwan — a self-governing island Beijing claims as its own — is a red line that, if mishandled, could put U.S.-China relations in “jeopardy.” Trump told reporters later that he was not interested in a war thousands of miles away. “Let’s see if the United States can make [a] clearer statement opposing Taiwan independence,” Zhang said.

This spring, the Trump administration paused a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. Experts say Xi is expected to press Trump to maintain this momentum when he sits down with Trump on Thursday. On Wednesday, as Xi departed for the U.S., China’s state news agency published a statement from the country’s cabinet-like State Council excoriating Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te. Lai is despised by Beijing, which suspects he is trying to lead Taiwan to declare formal independence. “The most important issue that the Chinese always raise in preparation for these high-level visits is the topic of Taiwan,” said William Klein, acting deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing until 2021.

On trade, Trump and Xi agreed back in May to create trade and investment boards. Among the discussions this week is a reciprocal tariff reduction framework on products worth $30 billion or more. China is expected to announce purchases of American agricultural products, and the U.S. is expected to announce tariff reductions on what are called 4A consumer goods, which include footwear and apparel, according to two people in the U.S.-China business community who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. However, no details of who will sit on either board have been announced yet. During Trump’s visit to China this spring, the U.S. said China agreed to purchase American beef, soybeans, and 200 Boeing jets. Data shows China is already behind schedule on its promises to buy American agricultural goods.