Retired colonel says North Korea’s fear system risks miscalculation
David Maxwell, executive director of the Korea Regional Review, said South Korea and the United States should prepare for Korean unification while maintaining strong deterrence against North Korea, warning in an interview that fear and misinformation could lead Kim Jong Un to a catastrophic military miscalculation.
Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy and a retired U.S. Army Special Forces colonel with more than 30 years in the Asia-Indo-Pacific region, made the remarks to UPI on Friday after delivering an address at the 2026 One Korea International Forum in Seoul. He summarized his approach in the forum as: “Unification first, then denuclearization and peace; the path to unification is through information and human rights.” For decades, he said, North Korea policy has largely followed the opposite sequence, seeking denuclearization and peace first while leaving unification as a distant objective.
The risk, Maxwell said, is that a worst-case scenario could develop if deteriorating conditions inside North Korea led Kim to believe his personal survival or that of his regime was threatened. Because North Korea operates through a system of fear, officials around Kim may tell him what he wants to hear rather than provide accurate information, Maxwell said. That could leave Kim with a distorted assessment of South Korea’s military capabilities, the South Korea–U.S. alliance and North Korea’s chances in a conflict.
The danger would become acute, Maxwell said, if Kim concluded that war was his only means of survival while also believing North Korea could attack South Korea and win. A strong South Korea–U.S. alliance and credible deterrence are therefore essential to preventing such a miscalculation, he said, though he added that deterrence manages the immediate danger without resolving the underlying problem of Korea’s division.
Maxwell argued that North Korea’s nuclear weapons are closely connected to regime survival, making permanent elimination of the nuclear threat difficult without addressing the political system that sustains it. He stressed that this does not mean abandoning deterrence, defense, sanctions, diplomacy or nuclear negotiations; those measures should address immediate threats while Seoul and Washington pursue a longer-term political objective.
“Are we trying to manage the consequences of division forever, or are we trying to solve the Korea question?” Maxwell asked in his address. His own answer, he said, is a free and unified Korea.
On the cost of unification, Maxwell challenged the perception that it would primarily impose an enormous financial burden on South Korea. He acknowledged the cost but said permanent division also carries continuing expenses through defense spending, nuclear threats, recurring crises and the risk of war. North Korea’s underdeveloped infrastructure could also present opportunities, Maxwell said, arguing that South Korea could apply its technological capabilities to build advanced infrastructure and smart cities in the North rather than simply reproduce older development models. Such projects could potentially become models of modern urban development for other countries, while attracting private investment, creating industries and expanding the application of South Korean technology.
Maxwell also urged South Korea to pay attention to China’s approach to potential change on the peninsula. He did not suggest Beijing favors Korean unification, but described China as a pragmatic actor that considers contingencies and would seek to protect its strategic and economic interests if conditions in North Korea changed. The lesson for Seoul, he said, is that preparation should begin before a crisis. Planning should extend beyond military contingencies to economic integration, infrastructure, investment and property issues, relations with China and other neighboring countries, and the political structure of a future unified Korea.
Information and human rights are central to that preparation, Maxwell said, because North Koreans need access to information about South Korea, the outside world and universal rights to participate in determining their future.
Maxwell also addressed the recent mine incident in the Demilitarized Zone. Three South Korean soldiers were wounded on Sept. 21 when two mines exploded just south of the Military Demarcation Line as they cleared a patrol route. South Korea’s military said the devices were most likely North Korean, a conclusion Pyongyang has denied. Drawing on his experience serving near the border, Maxwell emphasized careful investigation to determine a mine’s origin and circumstances before reaching conclusions that could contribute to military escalation.
On Ukraine, Maxwell discussed North Korean soldiers captured while fighting in the war. North Korea has deployed special forces to fight for Russia since October 2024, according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. Maxwell said North Koreans who do not want to return home should not be forcibly sent back to a place where they could face persecution or punishment. He also asked South Koreans to consider how they would expect other democratic countries to respond if South Korea itself were attacked by an authoritarian state.
Maxwell described a two-track strategy: maintain a strong alliance and credible deterrence to prevent an immediate war while preparing politically, economically and diplomatically for an end to Korea’s division.
“Unification first, then denuclearization and peace,” Maxwell said.