Conley targets disaffected Republicans with affordability message
At Sparky’s Diner in Garnerville, in Rockland County, owner Jeannie Nicolakis said she has run the restaurant for 50 years and considers Lawler family. “He’s like my own son,” she said. “Not really my son — because I’m old enough to be his grandmother — but I see him as a grandson that’s done so much for this county.” That personal loyalty is part of the case Lawler is making in a race where the national environment has grown more difficult for his party: national polls show the GOP at a disadvantage, with voters more likely to choose Democrats than Republicans when asked which party’s candidate they would back in their district.
Speaking at the Republican National Convention in September, Lawler told delegates, “The truth is that the president and I don’t always agree, and that’s okay. After all, we’re both New Yorkers.” He added: “What I learned about President Trump behind closed doors is that if you’re willing to make your case and fight for what you believe in, he’s willing to listen.”
Lawler has pointed to two concrete breaks with the administration. He publicly opposed ending a policy that had shielded nearly 350,000 Haitian migrants from deportation and said he persuaded the White House to temporarily extend their work authorizations, a reprieve that has since expired. He has also promoted his work to raise the state and local property tax deduction, known as the SALT cap, a flash point in negotiations over Trump’s tax and spending bill. Lawler ultimately cast a deciding vote in favor of that legislation, even as critics have argued that other key parts of the bill have hurt voters, notably, the sizable cuts to federal healthcare funds.
Walking near the end of the Rockland County Volunteer Firefighters Association parade earlier this month, Lawler said he was confident in his chances. “Look, all politics is local,” he said. “My constituents know who I am.” He added: “The people who are solely voting on the basis of their dislike of Donald Trump, that’s their prerogative, that’s their right. But the vast majority of my constituents care about the substance of issues and the policy solutions that we can forge. And I’m proud of the record that I’ve been able to deliver for this district.”
Not all of his constituents are convinced. In Armonk, in neighboring Westchester County, Brett Silverstein, a parent at a fall festival, said high energy prices were his top concern. “You’re paying for goods that are inflated because of how much gasoline is and how much diesel is,” Silverstein said. Once a Republican voter, Silverstein said Lawler’s alignment with Trump has cost him support. “He’s supported Trump and kind of the whole ‘MAGA train’ over the past 2 to 4 years,” Silverstein said. “So given how he’s affiliated with that, I’m just not a big fan of it in general.”
Mike Monroe, who lives in Nanuet and calls himself a moderate, said he backed Lawler in 2022 but voted against him in 2024 and plans to do so again this year. “He’s basically the House of Representatives’ version of [Maine Republican Sen.] Susan Collins,” Monroe said. “[Lawler] stands up to the Trump administration in certain instances, but only when it doesn’t matter.” Monroe now volunteers for Conley.
Conley has leaned into affordability and distance from the national party’s left flank. “Whether it’s somebody who’s a registered Republican, Independent or Democrat, [it] doesn’t matter,” she said in an interview. “The pain they’re feeling is real for all, regardless of political affiliation.” She added: “It’s harder to put food on the table, keep a roof over their heads, afford health care, or keep the lights on. And they deserve better. And I will be better.” Conley has also distanced herself from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, and has not publicly campaigned alongside Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who has drawn criticism from Lawler and other state Republicans over her economic and immigration policies.
Pollster Evan Roth Smith, whose firm Slingshot Strategies has surveyed the district, said the race is shaped less by partisan balance than by a large share of voters who are not firmly tied to either party. “A lot of swing districts are just swing districts because they’re equal number of Democrats and Republicans. That’s not really what’s going on in NY-17,” he said. Slingshot’s polling finds that between 30 and 40 percent of district voters are ticket splitters or only loosely partisan. “One cycle they might vote for a Republican, the next cycle they might vote for a Democrat,” Roth Smith said. “So it’s a swing district because there are a lot of swing voters.”
In Stony Point, retired builder Michael Alvarado said he backed Lawler in 2024 but is undecided this year. “I vote for whoever thinks my way,” he said. “I don’t really have a party. I’m not a Republican or a Democrat. Actually I would say I’m more of a Democrat than a Republican.” Asked whether anyone is campaigning on his priorities — supporting unions and cutting school and property taxes — Alvarado said “not really,” but added: “I’m just looking. See what happens come November. We’ll hear all the promises.”