78% of Americans blame Trump for inflation, including 57% of Republicans

Brown University ties $133 billion in household costs to Iran war

A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 78% of Americans blame Trump administration policies for inflation that is outpacing their earnings — a figure that includes 57% of Republicans who say they support the president. The poll was published as the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday released its final Consumer Price Index report before the midterm elections.

The BLS report showed annual price increases at 3.7% in September, the highest pre-midterm-election inflation reading since 1990 outside the pandemic year. From August to September, consumer prices rose 0.6%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, also ticked up slightly during the month. The September annual rate is the highest since a three-year peak of 4.2% reached in May.

The release lands in the final stretch of the campaign season, with Republicans entering the midterm elections holding majorities in both chambers of Congress and the White House, and the economy consistently cited as a top issue for American voters.

Energy prices have been a major driver of the overall rate of price growth since the US-Israel war with Iran began. According to AAA data, average US gasoline prices remain more than a dollar per gallon higher than a year ago. Diesel fuel, which powers domestic supply chains, hit a record high last month.

Researchers at Brown University estimated that higher energy prices tied to the Iran war have cost US households over $1,020 per household, for a combined total of $133 billion across all US consumers.

Trump has in recent weeks pointed to Iran as the cause of rising prices. On Tuesday, he wrote on social media that Yemen’s Houthi group was attacking Saudi Arabia in what he described as a deliberate effort to drive up oil prices ahead of the US elections.

“They’ve emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran…in a very nasty way, hitting Saudi Arabia, and purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices, probably prior to the U.S. Elections — NOT NICE,” he wrote.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate last month for the first time since 2023, citing elevated inflation. Higher borrowing costs flow through to consumer rates, including mortgages. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the benchmark for most US home loans, has climbed to 7.40% according to FRED data.