Document projects destruction of more than 90% of Kyiv’s budgeted winter power
Russian missiles and drones have “systematically slammed” into power plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv this week, the Guardian reported, as rolling blackouts and water outages in both cities have increasingly resembled a supposed Russian blueprint to destroy life in major Ukrainian cities — an assessment that Ukrainian intelligence said it intercepted from Russia last month.
The document, titled “Analysis of Ukraine’s Energy, Housing and Utilities Sectors,” does not specify which Russian agency developed it. It sets out goals ranging from “degrading the quality of life” of Ukrainians through power outages to fully shutting off the water supply, which it predicts would cause the “deterioration of sanitary conditions and the forced outflow of residents from cities.” It identifies vulnerable energy grid targets and contemplates strikes against high-risk sites, including the switchyards at several nuclear power plants.
Several European officials familiar with the document have said it is likely to have been produced by analytical departments linked to the Russian military or intelligence agencies, and that copies have circulated in Ukraine in previous years, the Guardian reported. Ukraine’s energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, first briefed European allies on the plan last month, and a copy was first reported on by the New York Times.
“There are two large documents, written very coldly and very clearly, with tables showing the number of weapons needed for each facility to destroy it,” Shmyhal said last month. “The types of weapons range from ballistic missiles to jet-powered and conventional drones. We understand how they are going to act.”
This year, Russia appears to be putting those plans into practice, the Guardian reported. On Tuesday night, Russian strikes hit three major power plants in the Kyiv region — Combined Heat and Power Plants 4 and 5, and the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant — as well as a major electrical substation that transfers electricity from two of the country’s main nuclear power plants to the capital. Those targets, along with other substations that make up the “Kyiv energy ring” that helps bring electricity from across the country to the capital, have all been the focus of a Russian barrage that, if it succeeds, could threaten a humanitarian catastrophe in a city of 3 million people, the Guardian reported.
The leaked documents identify bottlenecks and prescribe the number of ballistic and hypersonic cruise missiles and jet-powered drones needed to knock out power plants and substations with what the Guardian described as brutal efficiency. The document predicts that, if carried out, the strikes could destroy more than 90% of the power Kyiv is budgeted for each winter, plunging the city into the dark and cold. A worst-case scenario could lead to blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day until damaged equipment is repaired, according to expert projections.
Economic Pravda, a leading Ukrainian business news site, reported on Thursday that the three major power plants in Kyiv no longer have the ability to generate electricity, leaving the city more reliant on electricity brought from elsewhere in the country. The government generally does not confirm specific damage to critical infrastructure, the Guardian noted. Economic Pravda’s experts predicted that, given a moderate winter and quick repairs of damaged substations, Kyiv residents could face up to eight hours of blackouts a day; in a worst case of frigid temperatures and frequent attacks, the city could be in the dark for up to 20 hours a day.
The Guardian reported that the Kremlin has increasingly turned to punishing Ukraine’s population in major cities as the frontlines of the conflict have frozen. “Last year, we were really on the brink,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst. “But the risk this year will be even worse, so the plan [to attack Ukrainian infrastructure] does seem realistic. There’s a very high chance that Russia tries to break us this winter.” If the Kremlin believed in the chance of a clean military victory before now, he added, it may now believe that to no longer be possible, and focus on destroying Ukraine’s remaining infrastructure rather than trying to capture it.
The plan sets out to destroy electricity generation, heating, water and sewage systems in such a way as to make life in Ukrainian cities unliveable, according to the Guardian. Destroying electrical generation alone, the document says, would lead to a “significant decrease in the quality of life of the population,” while strikes on the basis of Ukraine’s water, sewage and heating systems would create a “large-scale municipal infrastructure crisis.” It specifies the number of weapons that should be allocated — Geran 4/5 jet-powered drones and hypersonic or cruise missiles — in order to destroy key infrastructure such as thermal power plants, substations, water pumping stations and more.
The strikes on Ukraine’s energy system have become the country’s new frontlines, and Ukraine is badly outgunned, the Guardian reported, as its stocks of U.S.-provided PAC-3 missiles have dwindled. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week castigated city authorities for poor planning for the winter and for failing to protect the city’s energy infrastructure. Protests over heat and electricity blackouts were planned for Saturday, highlighting how the difficult conditions in winter could provoke a political crisis for the wartime government, the Guardian reported.
Even as Donald Trump unilaterally declared an “energy ceasefire” last week between Moscow and Kyiv, Russia continued with “methodical and devastating strikes” on Ukraine’s power grid, in particular in Kyiv, in a strategy the Guardian reported is meant to punish Ukraine’s population and drive the country to capitulation. Russia has stepped up its attacks on the Ukrainian power grid precisely as Washington and Kyiv are embroiled in a major political quarrel, the Guardian reported.
The Guardian said it is withholding some specifics of the military assessment at the request of Ukraine’s energy ministry. When contacted by the Guardian, the ministry said the document contained information that could aid in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure; it did not reply to questions on how the current Russian bombing strategy matched the proposals made in the document, or which Russian agency had developed the plans.