Equifax cuts guidance amid mortgage pressure and uneven financial growth

Canadian home prices stabilize as borrowing costs rise again

On Oct. 20, Equifax reduced its midpoint 2026 revenue guidance to $6.661 billion, reflecting reduced U.S. mortgage-related revenue. Higher costs of borrowing and dampened home-buying trends were weighing on the year. CEO Mark Begor separately said in a release: “We expect the much weaker U.S. mortgage market that we saw in the latter half of the third quarter to continue through the remainder of 2026.” Equifax shares were up 6% premarket.

Equifax’s third-quarter performance showed broad gains outside domestic housing: revenue rose 8% in Diversified Markets, 7% in Workforce Solutions, with gains in Consumer Lending, Government and Talent Solutions. Even U.S. mortgage revenue rose 15% in the third quarter. The sharp late-third-quarter drop in the mortgage market, however, was severe enough to offset those gains and prompt the lower full-year outlook.

BMO’s Ryan Griffin said Equifax’s government contracts were a key third-quarter highlight and that the tougher mortgage backdrop was likely already on most investors’ radar. Griffin said fourth-quarter guidance was lowered because of the tougher mortgage-market backdrop, but wrote, “we believe most investors had expected this given the move in rates intra-quarter.” The Government segment grew at a mid-single-digit rate and beat Wall Street consensus of 3%. Year-to-date Government annual contract value reached $550 million, up from $300 million in the second quarter. Equifax shares were up 12% to $177.56.

Canada’s Teranet-National Bank Composite Index rose 0.1% from August in September, the second increase in three months. National Bank’s Daren King said prices had remained essentially stable since June after a decline that began in December 2025. Resale-housing activity picked up after spring, but home sales began to decline again in August and September as Canada’s recent job-market upturn faded. King expects housing affordability to deteriorate in coming quarters because mortgage rates rose significantly in September and early October, and he expects that increase to continue.

BNP Paribas said the People’s Bank of China was likely to hold its policy rate steady for the rest of 2026, citing unabated pressure on banks’ net interest margins. BNP Paribas said the new property policy provides a nationwide interest-rate subsidy for commercial mortgage loans rather than an outright mortgage-rate cut, and that the subsidy was likely to provide some relief to banks. BNP Paribas also said, “The shift from broad-based deflation to mild inflation and the potential for further interest-rate hikes from the U.S. Fed are likely to limit monetary easing, in our view.”

Nomura analysts said Axis Bank was likely to see a more gradual margin recovery from the January-March quarter. Axis Bank management expected sequential improvement, but Nomura expected the Reserve Bank of India’s October repo hike to reprice loans with a lag and said fiscal 2028 margins hinge on further hikes. Nomura raised its fiscal 2027 loan-growth forecast to 21% from 17% and cut its fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 earnings-per-share estimates by 2% and 4%, respectively, on lower treasury and fee income. Nomura maintained a buy rating and cut the target price to 1,525 rupees from 1,545 rupees. Shares closed 3.9% lower at 1,236.90 rupees Monday.

Berenberg’s Michael Huttner wrote that M&G’s low cost of capital allows the U.K. investment manager to price annuities very competitively. M&G’s low funding costs come through its with-profits fund, which has 7.7 billion pounds of surplus capital. Berenberg wrote that M&G’s low funding costs mean the investment manager can sustain solid new-business growth. Huttner called M&G’s target of attracting over 50 billion pounds in capital-light assets by 2030 “fully achievable.” Berenberg said M&G remained on track to meet its 2027 plan targets. M&G shares were down 0.2%.

Barclays analysts Ivan Bokhmat and Domenico Turco wrote that U.K. motor insurer Sabre Insurance Group is in good shape to weather a hardening market. Sabre said growth was likely to slow in the fourth quarter while sector pricing had not kept up with claims inflation. Barclays’ own 2026 estimate for Sabre implies only around 2% growth in the fourth quarter, so Barclays sees limited downside risk. Bokhmat and Turco said, “Should prices continue to lag inflation, the anticipated continued double-digit growth in 2027 would have to rely more on Sabre’s new pricing initiatives, rather than the positive market backdrop.” Barclays added, “The fourth quarter may need patience from investors, but Sabre’s pricing means it is well positioned to deal with higher claims inflation.”

Panmure Liberum analysts Abid Hussain and Lucy Williams wrote that Sabre is well positioned to meet its 2030 targets, though the market has not reflected that in its rating. Sabre noted that the pace of growth is slowing as it fully prices in forward-looking claims inflation, which the market has yet to do. Panmure Liberum said: “This means material price increases are still required across the broader industry, which should provide an additional compounding layer of profitable growth as pricing turns.” Sabre’s growth in profitable policy count, with margins within the target range, means the company is in a good place to meet its 2030 strategy targets. Sabre is a corporate broking client of Panmure Liberum.

Panmure Liberum analyst Barun Singh wrote that Plus500’s acquisition of Brazilian broker-dealer Guru allows the online-trading platform to build a local offering and provide access to U.S. derivatives. Like Plus500’s recent purchase of Hedge in the United States, any contribution from the Guru deal will be positive, Panmure Liberum said. Singh said, “In our view, as with Hedge, the value is the license, market access and team on the ground, not Guru’s existing customers or revenue.” The deal terms were undisclosed, so Panmure Liberum left its estimates unchanged.

According to the Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment, Dubai’s economy contracted 2.3% in real terms in the first half of 2026, with gross domestic product falling to 473 billion dirhams ($128.8 billion) from 484 billion dirhams a year earlier. Financial and insurance activities grew 8.8%, accounting for 14% of GDP, up from 12.5% a year earlier. Wholesale and retail trade contracted 6% in real terms, transportation and storage declined 7.4% and real estate fell 2.5%. Construction grew 2.4%, while healthcare and social work activities expanded 14.3%. GDP at current prices rose 0.2% to 505 billion dirhams.

RHB Research analyst Shekhar Jaiswal said Singapore Exchange faces an earnings hit from likely lower trading volumes. Singapore Exchange’s securities turnover and securities daily average value fell on-month in September. RHB’s implied first-half fiscal 2027 growth rates for Singapore Exchange’s securities and derivatives activities were 7.4% and 10.2%, respectively, below RHB’s forecasts. RHB cut Singapore Exchange earnings estimates by 8.3% for fiscal 2027, 8.4% for fiscal 2028 and 8.5% for fiscal 2029, and lowered the target price to 20.30 Singapore dollars from S$22.20. RHB said Singapore Exchange’s valuation premium to regional peers remains defensible partly because of Singapore’s structural tailwinds and maintained a neutral rating. Singapore Exchange shares were 0.2% lower at S$20.73.