Michelle Landry announces retirement, leaving Matt Canavan a lower-house option

Samaras says One Nation surge could put Canavan’s Senate seat at risk

Veteran Nationals MP Michelle Landry announced Friday that she would not recontest her Queensland seat of Capricornia, around Rockhampton, at the next election. Nationals leader Matt Canavan had not committed to a lower-house move, although he did not rule one out at a press conference with Landry, where he shrugged off questions.

Canavan had already said earlier this month that he would do “whatever it takes” to hold Capricornia. Telling Sky News, he said: “if I’m required, if it is required to keep a seat, to hold one more seat in the lower house somewhere. I will do it.” He did not confirm a lower-house bid on Friday.

Kos Samaras, director at polling group Redbridge, said Canavan faced losing his Senate seat in 2028, pointing to current polling showing a One Nation surge. He said the surge could see Hanson’s party win upper-house seats currently held by the Coalition. Senators up for re-election in Queensland at the next poll include two LNP members, James McGrath and Canavan, two Labor members, one Greens member and Pauline Hanson herself. Samaras said One Nation could win one or more additional Senate seats, most likely at the expense of Canavan, the second person on the LNP ticket.

That assessment was conditional on One Nation’s polling surge remaining unchanged. Samaras said: “He goes from a 0% chance of being elected as a senator, to potentially winning [in Capricornia].” He added: “That will also be difficult, because of One Nation, but he [Canavan] is in a better position going downstairs.”

Heavy speculation remained focused on whether Canavan would run for Capricornia and whether Pauline Hanson could attempt her own switch to contest the seat. Landry said One Nation was “not very pleasant” and criticised the party’s “obnoxious” cartoon videos. “I think they need to pull their heads in,” she said.

She also said: “I’ve had a lot of dealings with One Nation over the years, and I can tell you, most of it hasn’t been very pleasant.” She added: “When I look at people that move into an area to run for a political position, it doesn’t usually end well.”

Landry denied that she had been pushed to resign from Capricornia to make way for another Nationals member and declined to speculate about who could replace her. Coalition leader Angus Taylor also declined to speculate about a Canavan lower-house switch at a separate press conference, calling him an “extraordinary colleague.”

Last month’s Guardian Essential poll showed One Nation with a 25% primary vote nationwide, Labor with 29% and the Coalition at an all-time low 22%.

Samaras pointed to Redbridge polling showing what he called a “complete wipeout” of the Coalition at the hands of One Nation. Specifically, he cited a large analysis from May showing Hanson’s party could win up to 59 seats nationally, largely from the Liberals and Nationals. “On current polling, they’ll win nearly every seat the LNP holds in Queensland,” Samaras said, including Senate spots.

The forecast came with caveats. Samaras noted large “volatility” in polling nationwide and said the Queensland state LNP government was polling well. “If there’s a state in this country that’s good for One Nation, it’s Queensland,” he said. His final caveat was: “Things can change.”