Retailer demand preceded Trump’s diesel claim and proposed $8 billion relief
Across dated statements from Feb. 24 through Oct. 19, President Donald Trump moved from praising gasoline as “falling fast” to arguing that higher oil prices made money, demanding retailer cuts, claiming he had struck a deal to buy Russian diesel and proposing a harvest fuel-relief program that he claimed would provide $8 billion for farmers. The Associated Press chronology places the sequence against Monday’s national averages of $4.29 per gallon for regular gasoline and $6.35 per gallon for diesel.
The sequence unfolded as crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, was volatile. Markets and consumers felt whiplash over uncertainty about the war’s future. Lower gas prices had been a key campaign pledge during Trump’s second presidential run. During the war, Trump offered changing explanations and price promises as energy costs rose. Households faced more strain, with cost-of-living concerns at the top of many voters’ priorities before the Nov. 3 election.
Nearly eight months after the war began, higher energy costs were undermining Republicans’ effort to keep control of Congress in the midterm elections next week, according to the Associated Press chronology. Trump repeatedly claimed that more expensive fuel was a small price for the war, which he described as necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He continued to blame his predecessor, former President Joe Biden, for the country’s economic problems and presented the world’s oil squeeze as good news for U.S. production. At a Georgia campaign rally over the weekend, he told supporters, “We’re making a freaking fortune.”
Gasoline claims and oil revenue
On Feb. 24, in his 2026 State of the Union address, Trump said gasoline was “falling fast,” just days before joining Israel to launch the Feb. 28 attacks on Iran. Referring to Biden, he said, “Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor and was, quite honestly, a disaster, is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states, and in some places $1.99 a gallon.” He added, “And when I visited the great state of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline, the lowest in four years, and falling fast.” Gasoline averaged $2.95 per gallon nationwide, about 19 cents cheaper than a year earlier.
On March 12, less than two weeks into the war, oil prices were spiking and Trump described a financial upside. On Truth Social, he wrote, “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” Brent crude cost more than $100 per barrel, up from about $70 per barrel in 2025.
Retailer pressure and Trump’s post-election oil-price forecast
On June 29, as oil costs cooled amid hopes for peace earlier that summer, Trump expressed frustration that gasoline prices were not falling quickly enough. With oil at $68 per barrel and heading south, he wrote on social media, “They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south. The Retailers must quickly react to this statement, and do what they know is right — DROP YOUR PRICE FOR OUR GREAT AMERICAN PEOPLE! There will be no gauging, which is totally illegal. If Retailers don’t do this, big problems lie ahead!” The national average for gasoline was $3.86 per gallon, down from more than $4.50 per gallon in May but still about 67 cents pricier than a year earlier.
On July 1, ahead of the Fourth of July holiday, Trump claimed that lower gas prices were in sight. He wrote online, “Just as I promised, Oil Prices are plummeting FAST, and Gas Prices at the pump are dropping too, but not as fast as they should be,” as he anticipated discounts at some “Freedom Fuel” stations near Philadelphia. “Gas Prices will soon be back to the Record Low Prices Americans enjoyed at the pump before our very successful ‘excursion’ in Iran.” Brent crude fell to $71.57 per barrel from its triple-digit highs amid wider hopes for peace.
By Sept. 9, fighting had escalated again. Trump said he did not expect oil prices to cool before the midterms. “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump said at the time. “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.” Brent crude had spiked past $101 per barrel, compared with $66 per barrel a year earlier.
At a North Carolina campaign stop on Sept. 16, Trump characterized the increase in gasoline prices and again described the war as necessary. “You have a little higher. It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done,” Trump said. “Remember that. It’s a little more. Frankly, even if it was a lot more.” Gasoline averaged $4.37 per gallon, about $1.18 more than at the same time in 2025.
Trump’s Russian-diesel deal claim and proposed $8 billion farmer relief
On Oct. 9, Trump claimed he had struck a deal to buy Russian diesel to tamp down a fuel-price spike. Trump’s claimed purchase marked a reversal of years of U.S. pressure on Moscow over its war with Ukraine. He continued to claim that the United States retained control of the Strait of Hormuz even though traffic remained well below prewar levels amid threats of further attacks from Tehran. Trump wrote, “Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” He added, “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority.” The national average for diesel was $6.28 per gallon, slightly down from a high of nearly $6.53 per gallon in September.
On Oct. 19, Trump announced his administration’s latest effort to offset higher diesel costs: a new harvest fuel-relief program that he claimed would provide $8 billion in support for farmers. At a Kansas campaign rally, he said, “When Republicans win, we will pass even more funding for our farmers,” and asked the crowd to “pretend please that I’m on the ballot.” Nationwide, diesel averaged about $6.32 per gallon, 74% more than a year earlier, when it cost $3.63 per gallon.
The sequence moved from the Feb. 24 claim that gasoline was “falling fast” and the March 12 argument that higher oil prices made money to the June retailer demand, Trump’s Sept. 9 post-election oil-price forecast, his Oct. 9 Russian-diesel deal claim and his Oct. 19 proposed harvest fuel-relief program. Monday’s national averages were $4.29 per gallon for regular gasoline, compared with $2.98 per gallon before the war, and $6.35 per gallon for diesel, compared with $3.76 per gallon in February. Diesel had surpassed $6 per gallon the prior month, a record, after reaching nearly $6.53 per gallon in September.