Energy economist urges $3bn heating aid boost as winter bills climb

NEADA research found electricity shutoffs up 28% in 10 states

Heating oil is the sharpest illustration of how the war in Iran is feeding into U.S. household energy costs, Wolfe wrote, because it is a fuel families cannot easily do without. He put the potential increase at roughly 50% this winter, or nearly $900 in added cost, for households that heat with oil. Later in the column he sized the added burden at $878 for a family living on Social Security or working for minimum wage.

Wolfe is executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which represents state directors of the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. He is also co-director of the Center on Energy Poverty and Climate and an adjunct professor at the George Washington University public policy school. The column ran in The Guardian’s opinion section on Friday.

The affordability squeeze did not begin with the war, Wolfe wrote. He cited research by his organization finding that electricity shutoffs in 10 states had increased 28% over the past two years, and said millions of Americans were already behind on utility bills and forced to choose between energy, food, medicine and rent.

For families living on Social Security, minimum-wage workers and others with little room in their budgets, higher energy prices are taking an especially heavy toll, Wolfe wrote. Even middle-class families are struggling to absorb another $100 or $150 a month for gasoline, groceries and home heating, he wrote.

Wolfe drew a direct line between heating oil and diesel, which he described as essentially the same petroleum product. Both have been hit hard by the disruption to global energy markets, he wrote, and higher diesel prices raise the cost of moving food, delivering goods and operating farms and construction equipment — costs that eventually reach household budgets.

He argued that heating oil hits faster than gasoline because families can sometimes conserve fuel by driving less, while a heating oil tank must be filled to keep a home warm. “Families cannot simply stop filling their tanks when prices rise,” he wrote.

The column quoted President Donald Trump describing higher oil prices resulting from the war as “a very small price to pay for USA, and world, safety and peace.” Wolfe responded that there is nothing small about an additional $878 in heating costs for a family on Social Security or minimum wage. He also noted Trump has said fuel prices will fall “like a rock” when the war ends, and wrote that he hopes the president is right.

Even a swift end to the conflict would not reset prices immediately, Wolfe wrote. Damaged refineries need repairs, shipping routes must reopen and depleted petroleum inventories must be replenished — a process he said could take months. Families, he added, cannot postpone heating bills while the oil market recovers.

The policy request is specific: $3 billion in additional funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps low-income households pay heating bills. Wolfe wrote that the money would let states provide supplemental assistance covering rising heating oil and electricity costs before the winter heating season starts.

He also asked lawmakers to consider temporarily widening eligibility to working families who earn too much to qualify but still struggle with energy bills, with enough extra funding that assistance to the lowest-income households is not reduced. Congress, he wrote, needs to act when it returns after the midterm elections and before winter arrives.

Wolfe cited a Consumer Reports survey finding that more than a quarter of families reported cutting heating and cooling in their homes to uncomfortable levels to save money, and that 19% cut back on groceries or switched to less expensive food options. Without additional assistance, he wrote, some families face the possibility of losing heat during the coldest months.

Beyond the immediate winter, Wolfe argued that U.S. energy security has been measured too narrowly by how much oil and natural gas the country produces, and that higher domestic production has not protected households from price shocks caused by wars overseas. He called for expanding energy sources whose fuel costs cannot be driven up by a war, including wind and solar. “There is no strait of Hormuz for solar power,” he wrote.

He closed by separating the two timelines: the war in Iran will end at some point, but the affordability crisis will not end with it.