Mail ballots could favor Democrats in early returns
Georgia voters cast ballots Tuesday in the state’s Senate and governor contests. Democrat Jon Ossoff is defending his U.S. Senate seat against Republican Rep. Mike Collins in one of the nation’s marquee races. Republican healthcare executive Rick Jackson faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor, in the contest to succeed departing two-term GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, with Republicans trying to hold onto the governor’s mansion.
Ossoff is the only Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2024. The seat would be a top prize for Republicans looking to offset possible losses in a midterm environment where the president’s party typically loses seats. Republicans can afford to lose no more than three of their 53 Senate seats and still maintain control, with Vice President JD Vance casting tiebreaking votes.
Once thought out of reach for Democrats, control of the Senate is increasingly in play, according to the Associated Press, as Republican candidates in key contests lose support over disapproval of Trump’s handling of high prices and the war in Iran. The Georgia races have drawn Trump to GOP rallies in Dalton and Perry and former President Barack Obama to Atlanta. Democratic fundraising trails the GOP nationally; in Georgia it does not.
Collins, a two-term congressman from the conservative 10th Congressional District along the South Carolina border, was the top vote-getter in the five-candidate May 19 primary and won the Republican nomination outright in a June 16 runoff against former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, 56% to 45%. Trump endorsed Collins for the runoff, while Kemp backed Dooley.
Ossoff, unopposed in the Democratic primary, has eclipsed the Collins campaign in fundraising and spending, raising about $137 million as of Oct. 14 compared with about $11 million for Collins. Collins has received help from outside groups such as the Senate Leadership Fund PAC of Republican Senate Leader John Thune, but outside groups supporting Ossoff have far outspent those supporting Collins.
In the governor’s race, Jackson received 53% of the June runoff vote, defeating Trump’s pick, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. Bottoms clinched the Democratic nomination in the May primary with 56% of the vote in a field of seven.
The winner will be in office during the next presidential election campaign and could emerge as a key figure if Georgia remains as competitive as it was in 2020 and 2024. Trump blamed Kemp for refusing to help overturn his 2020 loss in Georgia to Democrat Joe Biden, but the two reached a détente in 2024 ahead of Trump’s reelection victory.
Georgia state law allows county elections officials to begin tabulating mail ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day, so the first votes reported on election night will include many mail ballots along with early in-person votes. These ballots have tended to favor Democrats since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election, and the AP notes this suggests that the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more Election Day votes are tabulated.
In the 2024 presidential election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris took an 11-point lead as initial results were released shortly after polls closed, but Trump led by 27 points within the hour as in-person Election Day votes were tabulated. That lead then tightened steadily, and he ended up besting Harris by about 2 percentage points when all votes were counted.
In statewide races, Republicans tend to perform best in the smaller, more rural counties in Georgia’s northern, central and southeastern regions, while Democrats post their best numbers in the population centers of Atlanta, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah and Athens. The Atlanta-area counties of Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb are the most populous in Georgia and form the core of the state’s Democratic stronghold.
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two finishers advance to a Dec. 1 runoff. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET. Alongside the Senate and governor contests, the ballot includes U.S. House seats, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, agriculture commissioner, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, labor commissioner, public service commissioner, state Senate and state House races, and three statewide proposed constitutional amendments.
About 3.9 million votes were cast in Georgia’s 2022 Senate race, with about 64% cast early in-person or by mail. About four of every five counties are expected to release all or almost all of their early in-person and mail voting results in the first vote update of the night, before most counties release any in-person Election Day votes. In the 2024 general election, the AP reported the first results in Georgia at 7:04 p.m. ET, four minutes after polls closed. About 90% of the total vote had been counted by 10:21 p.m. ET, and the last update of the night came at 3:15 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it determines there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover newsworthy developments such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory, and will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why. Georgia has no automatic recount provision, but a losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.