AP declares winners only when no trailing candidate can close the gap

Montana voters will choose leaders for federal, state and other offices on Tuesday in the state’s midterm election. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 10 p.m. ET, according to the Associated Press. The AP Decision Team will monitor key data points as the votes are tallied.

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, statewide ballot measures, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state House and the Public Service Commission.

About 603,000 votes were cast in Montana in the 2024 presidential election, and about 81% of the votes in that race were cast early or by absentee ballot, according to the AP. The latest advance vote totals for the state are available in the AP’s advance vote tracker.

County reporting practices vary across Montana, the AP reported. About a third of counties are expected to release all or almost all results at the start of the night, regardless of vote type. Almost every county is expected to release at least some mail or early in-person results in the first vote report. About a third do not release any in-person Election Day results at the start of the night, while another third releases them throughout the night.

Counting ran well into the next morning in the last presidential election. First results in 2024 were reported starting at 10 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, as polls closed. The state reached 50% of votes reporting at 3:43 a.m. ET the next morning, according to the AP, and 90% of votes reporting at 11:16 a.m. ET.

The AP does not make projections. It will declare a winner only when it has determined that “there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap.”

In races that have not been called, the AP will continue to cover newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory, according to its election guidance. In doing so, the AP said it will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Montana requires an automatic recount only in the event of a tie vote, according to the AP. A candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote, but public funds will pay for it only if the margin is 0.25% or less.

Even in a race that is subject to a recount, the AP may declare a winner if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.