Midterms put 35 Senate contests, 39 governorships and local offices on the ballot

DOJ voter-roll policy ruled unlawful as NAACP challenges federal monitors

Voters across the United States will cast ballots on Tuesday, November 3, for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate contests and 39 governorships in 36 states and three US territories. Thousands of state legislative seats, local offices, judicial contests and ballot measures on taxes, abortion rights and voting rules will also be decided. An early October RealClearPolitics average of national generic polls showed Democrats leading Republicans by 8.2 points. A federal judge has ruled the Justice Department’s policy for obtaining unredacted voter rolls unlawful, and the NAACP has sued over the planned deployment of federal election monitors. Trump will remain president on the morning of November 4, but the election will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of his second term.

The Guardian described Democrats as hoping to capitalize on growing discontent with Trump to seize control of the House and possibly the Senate. The Guardian said Republicans were fighting to preserve their congressional majorities and prevent a fresh period of legislative paralysis and investigations into the White House. Republicans enter the election with a narrow House majority and 53 Senate seats; Democrats and independents who caucus with them hold 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take the House and secure a Senate majority.

Congress has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Both must approve federal legislation before it becomes law, and both play important roles in overseeing the executive branch. The House is elected every two years, so all 435 voting seats are contested. The Senate has 100 members serving staggered six-year terms, meaning roughly a third of its seats are up for election every two years. This year’s 35 Senate contests include 33 regular elections and two special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill terms vacated early.

Governorships and state legislative contests will shape policymaking closer to home, from education and reproductive rights to taxation and the administration of elections. Governors and state legislatures influence abortion access, education, taxation and voting procedures. State legislatures also play a central role in drawing congressional district boundaries, although the arrangements vary by state and some maps face court challenges or independent commissions.

Midterms fall nearly halfway through a president’s term and often serve as a referendum on the sitting president’s performance. Trump has actively encouraged that framing by telling voters “pretend I’m on the ballot.” The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections, a 90% rate of loss that stretches back to 1946. The Guardian cited three exceptions: George W. Bush’s Republicans gained seats in 2002 following the September 11 attacks; Barack Obama’s Democrats suffered a “shellacking” in 2010; and Trump’s Republicans lost the House in 2018.

Republicans have a narrow margin for error in the House and a more substantial advantage in the Senate, while Trump has been forced to hold campaign rallies in what should be safe Republican states. Political polarization and years of redistricting have reduced the number of genuinely competitive House districts, making it harder for either party to translate a national swing into a large change in seats. Reuters estimated that only about 40 to 50 House races are truly competitive. The House contest is spread across dozens of districts. Republicans are defending vulnerable seats in New York, Texas and Iowa, while Democrats are fighting to protect members in districts made more difficult by redrawn congressional boundaries. Notable gubernatorial elections include Alaska, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.

Several Senate contests have emerged as key battlegrounds. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed is seeking the open Democratic seat after incumbent Gary Peters decided not to seek re-election. In Georgia, The Guardian described Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff as enjoying a healthy polling lead over Republican challenger Mike Collins. In Maine, a state won by Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is defending her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson. Ohio offers another major test, with Democrat Sherrod Brown seeking to return to the Senate against Republican Jon Husted.

Texas has become especially closely watched. Democrat James Talarico is taking on Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general. Republicans have spent about $210m to help Paxton, whom The Guardian described as scandal-plagued. No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and Trump won the state by nearly 14 points in 2024. Other Senate contests in Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire could help determine which party controls the chamber. If the result produces a 50-50 split, Republican Vice President JD Vance would wield the tiebreaker vote. Polls cited by The Guardian show Democrats ahead in Maine, North Carolina and Kansas, with Alaska and Ohio described as competitive.

The cost of living regularly tops opinion polls. Democrats are campaigning hard on affordability, including food prices, housing, fuel and healthcare. The war in Iran has added a further complication for Republicans. Immigration remains another defining issue, with polls suggesting that many voters feel Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s hardline approach has gone too far. The Guardian said this could wipe out many of the gains Trump made with Latino voters in 2024.

Data centers, AI, tariffs, trade, abortion rights, voting rules and the future of democracy also remain important campaign themes. The Guardian reported that Democratic socialists scored some notable victories in Democratic primaries, creating momentum on the left of the party. In closely fought races, personal credibility, local connections, the ability to appeal to independent voters and a blitz of television advertising can outweigh the national party message.

The integrity of the midterms is under scrutiny, with concerns ranging from voter registration to the certification of results. The Guardian said Trump has sought to amplify these fears by putting forward what it called a litany of misleading and false claims about threats to US elections. The Justice Department has sued states for access to unredacted voter rolls so they can be cross-checked against a federal immigration database in an effort to identify ineligible voters. A federal judge ruled the department’s policy unlawful, citing limits on its authority and the risks of inaccurate data.

Other concerns include the use of immigration-enforcement data in voter-fraud investigations, the administration’s efforts to change mail-voting rules and the planned deployment of federal election monitors at polling places. The NAACP has sued over the monitors, arguing that their presence could intimidate voters. Voting-rights advocates are also watching for pressure on local officials to certify results, mass challenges to ballots and legal disputes that could delay or undermine the transition of power.

Voting rules are another source of contention. New restrictions on identification, registration and mail-in voting have taken effect in several Republican-controlled states. Supporters describe the measures as safeguards for election integrity, while critics argue that they could make it harder for eligible citizens to vote. These disputes are especially significant in a political climate in which Trump has repeatedly questioned election procedures and the legitimacy of results he dislikes.

If Democrats take the House, Republicans would lose their ability to pass legislation through that chamber without Democratic support. A Democratic majority could launch investigations into the administration, demand documents and testimony, and subject senior officials to sustained congressional scrutiny. Democratic lawmakers might also come under pressure from their supporters to impeach Trump. The Senate confirms cabinet officials, ambassadors and federal judges, including Supreme Court nominees. A Democratic majority could block or delay many of Trump’s appointments and force the White House to negotiate over legislation. The Guardian said a Democratic victory in either chamber would significantly constrain Trump’s ability to advance his domestic agenda and hasten his decline into “lame duck” status.

Even if Republicans retain one or both chambers, a reduced majority could make governing more difficult, particularly when legislation requires near-unanimous support from the party’s own members. Results may not be known on election night. Close contests, state rules for counting early and postal ballots, and possible recounts or legal challenges could delay the final outcome. Once the result is settled, attention will turn to the 2028 presidential campaign, with both parties seeking to use November’s results as a foundation for the next fight for the White House.