Democrats hopeful of retaking Congress as Trump approval sits at 37%

Cook Political Report rates 28 House and Senate seats as competitive

Thousands of races are taking place across the US, at different levels of government, but the main event for voters will be electing members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that make up Congress. Both chambers are currently controlled by Republicans, the president’s party, and the success or failure of Trump’s final two years in office could rest on the outcome.

One of the reasons the opposition Democrats have a chance to take back Congress is the president’s low approval rating, which is a good indicator for how well his party could perform. He began his second term as president with an approval rating of just over 50 percent, according to polling resource Silver Bulletin, but it quickly fell into the 40s. It was hovering around 42 percent when Trump decided to launch air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February, then dropped below 40 percent shortly afterward. It is currently sitting at about 37 percent.

Eight years ago, Trump’s approval rating was significantly higher at this point in his first term, at 43 percent. Joe Biden’s at the same point in his term was 40 percent. In both cases, the sitting president lost control of the House in the midterms but kept hold of the Senate.

Trump’s poor ratings help explain why Democrats are hopeful of winning both chambers of Congress and why they are setting their sights on states that Republicans have won consistently in recent years.

The Republican House majority is as thin as the math allows: 218 representatives, the exact number needed for control, plus one independent who votes with them. All 435 House seats are on the ballot in November because members serve two-year terms. But most districts are not considered competitive because the party that holds them has such solid support that there is only one likely winner.

The Cook Political Report identifies 21 House districts as toss-ups — 15 currently held by Republicans and 6 by Democrats. If Democrats win five of those on top of 28 districts classed as likely or leaning Democratic, they will win the House.

Historically, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections dating to 1934. Of those 23 elections, the president’s party has gained seats in only three.

The Senate map is more favorable to Republicans. They hold 53 of the 100 seats; Democrats hold 45 and two independents caucus with them. Thirty-five Senate seats are up for election because senators rotate in six-year terms. The Cook Political Report rates 7 of those seats as toss-ups — 6 Republican-held and 1 Democratic-held. To reach a 51-seat majority, Democrats would need to win 4 of the Republican-held toss-ups plus the 4 seats classified as likely or leaning Democratic.

But winning a majority is no easy task for the Democrats. They need to keep hold of their seat in Michigan, where polls show a tighter race than Democrats would like between Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing political outsider, and his Republican opponent Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent. Picking up new seats requires winning in places Trump carried by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. In Texas, former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeats current state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a close Trump ally.

The cost of living has emerged as the dominant issue for voters. Trump pledged during his 2024 campaign to “end inflation and make America affordable again,” and in his February 24 State of the Union address he declared gas was “now below $2.30 a gallon in most states.” Four days later, the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran began, disrupting Middle Eastern energy supplies. Gas subsequently reached $4 a gallon in the United States. One poll carried out in August found 63 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the situation.

Healthcare and immigration are also driving voter decisions, with Trump citing significantly lower border-crossing figures to argue his immigration policies are working. Many Democratic candidates are focusing on the high costs of US health insurance and the impact of Trump’s legislation on access to the healthcare system.

Most signs point toward a successful midterms for the Democrats, but it would not be the first time that Trump and his party have outperformed polls if they do win more seats than expected.

One of the few things in their favor is their huge financial advantage. At the end of August, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups held more than $600 million in cash on hand, while the Democrats had just under $400 million. On top of that, the Republicans also had more than $400 million held by Trump’s MAGA Inc group, the main fundraising and spending arm of the “Make America Great Again” political movement. The Republicans are using that financial advantage to buy advertising.

More than $1 billion in political advertising aired in September, according to research firm AdImpact, with Republicans outspending Democrats by $200 million and outspending them in nearly all Senate toss-up races.

Trump will be hoping this late messaging blitz can help convince Republicans to get out and vote in November, boosting turnout and limiting the damage done to him and his party.

Whatever the result, attention will quickly turn to the next presidential election in 2028. Trump’s unpopularity has dominated the midterms, but with him constitutionally unable to run for a third term the focus will shift to what the Democrats stand for, not just what they stand against.