Democrats favored in House as Trump approval hits historic low

Six Senate seats shift toward Democrats since June, Cook shows

Democrats are favored to win control of the House of Representatives with less than a month remaining before the November midterm elections, driven by President Trump’s 37% approval rating and widespread economic concerns among voters. The Cook Political Report projects Democrats will gain between five and 15 House seats, which would give them a narrow majority of 220 to 230 seats come January. A majority requires 218 seats.

The Senate has shifted more dramatically over the past several months. Six seats have moved in Democrats’ direction since June, according to Cook’s ratings. When the cycle first started, the Senate was considered a long shot for Democrats; now it is within reach.

Trump’s 37% approval rating ties him with former President George W. Bush in 2006 as holding the lowest pre-midterm approval rating in the last half century. Republicans lost both the House and Senate in 2006, when NPR described Iraq as “spiraling into civil war.” In 18 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats, losing an average of about 26 — and about four in the Senate — and nine more than that when the president’s approval rating is below 50%.

The intensity of opposition to Trump is at historic levels. According to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 53% of respondents said they strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing — the highest level ever recorded in the survey. A CBS poll found Democrats hold an enthusiasm edge: 84% of Democrats and 82% of independents said they are “definitely” going to vote, compared with 77% of Republicans.

Economic issues are driving voter sentiment, rating as both the top problem and most important issue facing the country. The war with Iran and Trump’s tariffs have directly led to increased costs on many goods and energy. An AP/NORC poll found that 65% of respondents said higher-than-usual prices are more because of Trump’s policies than factors outside of his control, while just 26% said they approved of his handling of the economy.

An NBC News poll from September found that for only the second time in the Trump era, respondents said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans on the economy, though the result was within the margin of error. The only other time Democrats led on that question was in 2018 — the last midterm year when Trump was president, when Democrats won 42 seats and House control.

The economy is increasingly bifurcated. Wealthy Americans are seeing increases in their wealth and stock portfolios, which are dominated by AI companies, while inflation is outpacing wages for many others and there isn’t a lot of turnover in the labor market — so if someone doesn’t have a job or is looking to change, it’s not an easy thing to do, according to NPR. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates this fall in an effort to tame inflation, making it more expensive to borrow money for houses and cars. Gas prices have risen because of the war with Iran, and AI is driving up utility costs in many places and, along with the rising national debt, is making borrowing more difficult. Negative views of the administration’s immigration enforcement tactics, discretionary domestic cuts, and the slashing of regulations and the federal workforce have further fired up Democratic voters.

Democrats hold a nine-point advantage in the average of 2026 polls on the congressional ballot test — a question asking which party’s candidate voters would support in their district. Democrats tend to need a larger lead on this question than Republicans to make gains, given how districts have been drawn, but a nine-point margin is in the range that has historically produced Democratic gains. In each of the past seven midterm elections, the party with the advantage on the ballot test has made gains.

Turnout in midterms is historically about 30% lower than in presidential years, and the voters most fired up to vote show up in outsized numbers. Anger often motivates the opposition party’s voters to register their frustration, and the intensity of opposition to Trump is at historic levels.

Several factors could limit Democratic gains. Mid-decade redistricting has helped insulate Republicans in the House, and there are fewer competitive seats, with most now in districts Trump won in 2024. Republicans also hold a campaign spending edge, and the Democratic Party itself remains unpopular with some voters.

Independents and Latinos, two swing groups, are souring on Trump during his second term, adding to the challenge for Republicans in competitive districts. That challenge is compounded when Trump makes comments like “pretend” he’s on the ballot, framing the election as a “referendum” on him.

Trump has acknowledged the political headwinds his party faces. “Whether you have a great president or not, Republican or Democrat, they don’t do well in midterms,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Alabama on Friday. “I don’t know why. Nobody’s explained it.” The White House’s theory is that Trump has had success turning conservatives out when he’s on the ballot, and Republican candidates need those voters to show up in large numbers.

But whether that’s enough is going to be tested. In swing districts and some key Senate races, candidates also usually need voters in the middle to win.

The bottom line: with less than a month to go until the votes are in, the political compass points in Democrats’ direction. Their gains might not be as large as similar numbers would have indicated in past elections, but they have the wind at their backs.