Poll finds 17% approval on cost of living, 26% on economy
President Donald Trump launched a 32-day midterm campaign push on Thursday, the start of a swing through reliably Republican territory that some members of his own party have publicly warned may do more harm than good to GOP candidates on the ballot next month.
The trip began with stops in Texas and Oklahoma, with rallies planned in Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska in the first five days of October — all states Trump carried in past presidential elections. The Guardian reported that Trump is expected to hold five to seven rallies per week through the November elections, an intensity that political strategists have begun to question. Trump’s Thursday rally in Oklahoma was held in support of gubernatorial candidate Mike Mazzei. The president insisted: “My heart is in it like never before.”
The Guardian’s reporting is anchored by an Associated Press-Norc Center for Public Affairs Research survey showing Trump’s standing at historic lows. Just 17% of US adults approve of his handling of the cost of living, the survey found, while 26% approve of his handling of the economy — described by the poll as “a new low.” Roughly three in 10 approve of his job performance overall, and The Guardian reported his overall approval rating is “at an all-time low.” Voters cite the cost of living, the Iran war and what The Guardian described as “excessive immigration crackdowns” as flashpoints.
Steve Schmidt, a political strategist who worked for Republican presidents George W. Bush and John McCain, told The Guardian that Trump’s rallies have become a liability for the party’s candidates. “They’ve been a mainstay of his brand, but they’re also the engine of his doom,” Schmidt said. “Everybody knows the obvious, which is that his presence hurts every Republican candidate on the ballot because the race is fundamentally about Trump and the American people are sick and tired of him.”
Schmidt added: “He’s surrounded by people who tell him that he’s beloved and that the answer to his problem is to keep talking, to keep performing, to keep doing the rallies, that the answer is more, not less. These rallies have become his lead weight, his proverbial anchor that’s going to drown them all.”
In a sign of how worried the party has become, The Guardian reported that a major Republican political action committee has reportedly pulled back its spending in North Carolina — the only battleground state Trump won in all three of his presidential bids — and redirected resources to reliably Republican Kansas. Schmidt read the safe-state schedule as a tell. “When you’re campaigning in October as a Republican in those states, not only does it mean you’re losing, it means you’re losing in a biblical sense, an end-times sense,” he said. “The reality is that there’s no safe Republican anywhere in the country.”
Even in a hyper-digital age, Trump’s rallies have shown the enduring power of live performance. The atmosphere, somewhere between cult worship, rock concert and partisan sports event, offers his followers a sense of belonging. Since launching his bid for president in 2015 he has held roughly a thousand of them, though definitions of what counts as a full “rally” can vary.
The trip to Durant, Oklahoma, on Thursday night was preceded by an 85-mile drive from Texas after foul weather grounded Air Force One. Trump recalled telling his motorcade, “Get your asses in that car.” Blake Marnell, a San Diego rally regular in a brick-patterned suit resembling Trump’s border wall, was in Oklahoma on Thursday and described the dash: “Getting in the motorcade, driving 100 miles an hour to Durant – he’s not gonna let stuff get in his way. He enjoys the rallies. They’re energising for the crowd and for him. It’s a way for him to connect with the grassroots.”
Once in Durant, Trump basked in the adulation of the rally crowd. Spotting two diehard supporters being interviewed by TV crews outside the venue, he replayed the clip and summoned them onto the main stage. “You can’t miss big, strong, handsome Oklahoma studs,” he said. “Where are you? Come up here!” The pair — both white, male and elderly — took the microphone. One, wearing a green Trump cap and grey Trump T-shirt, said: “Thank you, President Trump, for all you do. Every day you work harder than any American I know.” The other, wearing a red Make America Great Again cap and red T-shirt, said: “Absolute honour of a lifetime to be with the greatest president this country has ever had!”
Marnell dismissed the notion that the rallies were hurting Republicans. “That’s ridiculous. How many years now have we heard critics saying that Trump is done, the end is near, the walls are closing in, this is the beginning of the end, he can’t possibly win,” Marnell said. “They’ve written him off so many times, I don’t know why people listen when they say things like that. It makes no sense to me. This election is, to an extent larger than normal, going to be swayed by turnout and so turnout is the goal of these rallies.”
At one point Trump entreated the audience, “Pretend I’m running, please,” and begged them to contact friends and relatives. He openly admitted the Republican party’s precarious footing across the national map: “We’re worried about Michigan, we’re worried about Texas, we’re worried about a few states.”
The Guardian also reported that even some of Trump’s most dedicated supporters have publicly broken with him. Trisha Hope, a self-described “front-row Joe” who once bought an RV and published a book of his tweets to fund her travel to his rallies, told Politico she now considers him a “fraud and liar.” She cited his abrupt dismissal of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation during a cabinet meeting and unfulfilled promises regarding the war in Iran. “If we do lose the midterms and he is impeached again, I will be walking the halls of Congress in support of that impeachment,” Hope said.
But when confronted with the negative numbers, The Guardian reported, the president has sounded like a man in denial, preferring to discuss his architectural projects in Washington including a new White House ballroom.
At a separate stop in Denton, Texas, earlier on Thursday, Trump defended his record while blaming his predecessor for inflation. Speaking to workers at a truck factory, he said: “We have the greatest numbers of any president in the history of our country, and I can’t get the word out. Maybe we’re doing a bad job selling it.” At the same event, Trump praised Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as one of his “most loyal people,” while jokingly adding: “I have to always remember that because he can be a pain in the ass sometimes, I’ll be honest. Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is — good. I didn’t even know if he’s here. I don’t care!”
The tension between Trump and Republican candidates was underscored this week by a secret audio recording from a high-dollar fundraiser. The New York Times obtained the tape, on which Paxton — whose Senate campaign has struggled under the weight of scandal — was overheard telling donors that the party’s midterm convention in Dallas had hurt Republican prospects. “When we did that convention, it dropped our numbers; everybody’s numbers dropped,” Paxton said. “Right now? Yeah. It’s not good. I wish there was something we could do to turn that around, but obviously nothing.”
New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, told The Guardian that Trump’s swing through safe Republican territory amounts to an admission of weakness. “In those places, I would hope that it hurts,” she said. “People are angry and you shouldn’t be reminding them. So, I’m going to say go ahead. Maybe he should spend some more time in Texas.”
Lujan Grisham criticized Trump’s second term, pointing to what she described as a “litany of broken promises, economic mismanagement and foreign policy overreach.” She said: “He promised to deliver for Americans and he did none of the above. He’s in a war that nobody wants in Iran that he can’t get out of. He’s doing nothing for inflation; he’s making it worse. And he certainly isn’t addressing affordability.”
She also singled out the administration’s aggressive policies under Immigration and Customs Enforcement. “ICE of course is a huge liability for the White House and this administration, just given they continue to detain both lawfully present individuals and Americans,” she said. “We’ve had Americans lose their lives, and we’ve devastated whole communities and families. He’s in real trouble.”
Generic congressional polls show Democrats holding a lead approaching double digits, The Guardian reported, raising the prospect of a “blue wave” that could erase Republican majorities in the House and Senate. A Republican official told the paper: “We’re not going to send Potus to areas where it would be hurtful to our candidates.”
Schmidt, the Republican strategist, drew a literary parallel to the faded Hollywood star of one of Trump’s favorite films. “He needs attention like Norma Desmond and that’s who he’s become here at the nadir of his presidency as he moves from king of the hill into decrepit lame duck,” Schmidt said, referencing the 1950 film Sunset Boulevard. “All of the Führer rallies in the red states don’t change the fact. There’s no amount of money that could be spent on his behalf, no amount of rallies, nothing that can save him from the judgment that’s coming down on his head.”
Pollster John Zogby told The Guardian that Trump appears “very out of touch with the reality of most Americans” and that his recent rally performances have been marked by “rambling digressions that fail to speak to the immediate anxieties of ordinary voters.” Zogby added: “Number one, he is tending to digress. He’s not on his best form. But secondly, when he does address affordability, it’s, ‘Wait and see, just a little longer, the war will be over.’ It’s not connecting.”