US midterm elections on November 3 will determine control of Congress

Republicans hold narrow majorities; Trump approval at 37 percent

The United States will hold midterm elections on November 3, with voters choosing members of Congress in a vote that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency. Elections take place every two years; when they fall in the middle of a president’s four-year term, they are known as midterms. A key task of Congress is to create and pass federal laws that apply nationwide. The outcome will shape how easily Trump can carry out his legislative agenda through the final two years of his term.

The House of Representatives is the lower chamber of Congress, where proposed laws are first introduced and debated. All 435 of its seats will be on the November 3 ballot; members serve fixed two-year terms. The Senate is the upper chamber, and 35 of its 100 seats will be up for election. Senators serve six-year terms and, among other duties, approve or block bills received from the House. Congress is one of the three branches of government, alongside the presidency and the judiciary, and control of it matters for the shaping of legislation.

Voters in much of the country will also choose state-level officeholders on the same day. Governor contests in California, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan are among the most closely watched, according to BBC News.

Both chambers are currently held by the Republican Party, though by narrow margins. Republicans hold 218 House seats — the minimum number needed to control the chamber — plus one independent who votes with them. In the Senate, they hold 53 seats, two above the 51-seat threshold needed for control.

Historically, voters have tended to punish the party of the incumbent president in midterms, according to BBC News. Trump’s standing has weakened over the course of his second term. Silver Bulletin, a polling resource website, put his approval at about 37 percent in early October, with 61 percent disapproving. He began his second term with a job approval of just over 50 percent.

The US economy is on the minds of many voters struggling with the price of fuel, groceries, housing and healthcare, according to BBC reporting. The median sales price of houses sold stood at $410,700 in Federal Reserve data. Inflation remains above the level targeted by the US Federal Reserve, a condition BBC reporting attributes in part to the war the US and Israel started with Iran in February. Democrats argue that Trump’s program of trade tariffs has also pushed up prices for American consumers.

Immigration is another central issue. Republicans say Trump has delivered on a major 2024 campaign pledge by tightening the border and launching what the BBC describes as a widespread and often controversial crackdown on illegal immigration.

Concerns about artificial intelligence have also risen in the campaign’s closing weeks. Senior politicians from both parties have agreed on the need to regulate the technology, putting them in opposition to Trump, who has rejected the idea of laws to control its development.

The outcome is harder than usual to predict this year because of a redistricting fight between the two parties over how voting districts in the House are drawn. Republicans sought to create more favorable electoral maps in several states, and Democrats followed suit. Not all seats in each chamber are competitive; some are a safe bet for Republicans or Democrats. BBC’s US partner CBS News has identified nine Senate races to watch — including contests in Iowa and New Hampshire — and 42 House races, including in Arizona and Ohio. A closely watched Senate contest in Iowa pits Democrat Josh Turek against Republican Ashley Hinson in a race the BBC characterizes as tight.

If Democrats win either the House or the Senate, Trump will find it more difficult to get laws through Congress, and his domestic plans could be frustrated — although he has found ways to exercise power without his wider party, according to BBC reporting. Democratic control of either chamber would also give the party the ability to bring its own legislation to the floor and use committees to investigate the Trump presidency. According to BBC reporting, potential targets of such investigations include corruption allegations, the new White House ballroom, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement tactics. Within the Democratic Party there is an ongoing debate about whether to pursue impeachment — a political process in Congress that would form the basis for a trial but is not a criminal proceeding.

If Republicans retain control of both chambers, Trump would be able to continue advancing his plans for the remainder of his time in office. His name will not appear on the ballot, though he has urged Republicans to treat the vote as a referendum on his record.

Whichever party prevails, commentators are expected to interpret the results as a statement about the direction of the country under Trump’s leadership. Because Trump cannot run for a third time, attention will quickly turn to potential successors — both the Republican who might lead the party’s 2028 presidential ticket and the Democrat who might challenge them.