IATA expects fuel to account for nearly one-third of airline operating expenses this year

Global average jet fuel price hovers around $196 a barrel after volatile wartime swings

The global average price of jet fuel is hovering around $196 a barrel. IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor put the global average at about $99 a barrel on Feb. 27, the day before the war began. Prices more than doubled to $209 by early April, fell for nearly three months and reached $195 a barrel in mid-September following their renewed ascent, IATA said, citing data from S&P Global Energy Platts.

IATA expects fuel to account for nearly one-third of airline operating expenses this year, up from about a quarter in 2025. Refined fuel is among airlines’ largest operating expenses.

Jet-fuel prices have been extremely volatile since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran. During the Middle East war, jet fuel rose even faster than oil, reflecting both higher crude prices and tight supplies of refined fuel.

Diesel and jet fuel are closely related products that compete for space at refineries. A shortage of either can put additional pressure on the price and availability of the other.

Carriers have cut some less-profitable flights and raised fares and baggage fees. Major U.S. airlines said higher passenger revenue initially covered only part of their soaring fuel costs.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said European ticket prices may climb as much as 20% in 2027 while the Middle East conflict continues. “So we’re facing 2027 where we have much higher oil prices… I think they’re going to get passed on in significantly higher airfares,” O’Leary said in a Monday interview on CNBC.

Ryanair said Monday that it doesn’t expect European short-haul airfares to fully offset anticipated increases in its fuel bill for next year. The company said it is reviewing costs and may have to impose temporary pay freezes, lower crew ratios and use more artificial intelligence to get further productivity in back-office and support functions.

O’Leary’s estimate applies to European ticket prices in 2027, while Ryanair separately said its review covers anticipated fuel-bill increases for next year.