Oil falls as traders weigh mixed U.S.-Iran diplomacy signals

The Wall Street Journal’s Market Talks roundup, published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET, tracked energy and utility markets on November 4, 2026. European wind-energy stocks opened higher after Democrats took control of both the U.S. Senate and House. Orsted rose 6.4%, Vestas Wind Systems gained 4% and Germany’s Nordex gained 5.7% in one opening-market snapshot; another listed EDP up 2%, RWE up 1.2%, Iberdrola nearly 1.4% higher and Orsted up 7.2%.

Baader analysts wrote that European utility stocks were unlikely to get a substantial boost in the near term from Democrats gaining control of both the U.S. Senate and House, saying much of the damage to renewables was already done. They said the One Big Beautiful Bill repealed 60% of the clean energy tax incentives introduced through the Inflation Reduction Act and that the incentives were not set to return before 2029 at the earliest.

President Trump and his administration have criticized wind energy and favored fossil fuels, the roundup said. The administration has also halted offshore projects that were nearing completion. Courts later allowed some of the projects to proceed, but Trump’s presidency has been a headwind for companies with U.S. exposure.

Oil traded lower in early Asian trading as markets monitored U.S. election results. ANZ Research said prices had been volatile as traders digested conflicting signals on progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks. Both sides appeared open to diplomacy, but Iran said the U.S. response to its demands was not satisfactory, the research firm noted. The analysts wrote, “The most immediate implication of the [U.S.] midterms for financial markets will be the prospect of a resolution in the Middle East or a return to offensive military action by the U.S.” Front-month WTI crude futures were down 0.7% at $95.34 per barrel, and front-month Brent crude futures were down 0.5% at $103.08 per barrel.

Later, crude futures added the previous session’s losses in an indecisive session, with prices rising before easing back as the market awaited progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement. Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group said in a note, “The diplomacy signals are mixed but the market is taking the softer path.” He said oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz was keeping the market well supplied and wrote, “Oil that is actually loaded and shipped is getting cheaper relative to benchmarks—a sign of rising supply, not just nervous futures traders.” WTI settled down 0.4% at $96.09 a barrel, and Brent fell 1.1% to $103.60 a barrel.

Citi analyst Megat Fais said Tenaga Nasional’s earnings momentum was expected to pick up in 2H as higher taxes recorded in 1H normalize. Fais trimmed the company’s 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts by 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively, to reflect higher-than-expected costs and the one-off impact of Tenaga absorbing electricity surcharge costs from September to December.

Fais said greater clarity on potential changes to the surcharge mechanism could ease concerns over the temporary relief. Attention was expected to shift to the next round of electricity tariff regulations, with its proposal likely to be submitted by mid-2027 and final details expected by year-end. Citi cut Tenaga’s target price to 14.20 ringgit from 14.40 ringgit while maintaining a neutral rating; shares were 0.5% lower at 13.10 ringgit.

Macquarie said XRG’s acquisition of Shell’s 16.67% stake in the North West Shelf gas-export facility for US$1.45 billion was a positive signal for Woodside Energy. XRG, of the United Arab Emirates, needs approval for the Shell deal from Australia’s foreign-investment watchdog, and other parties in the North West Shelf project would need not to exercise their pre-emption rights. If that happened, Macquarie said Woodside could be tempted to copy Shell by selling a 16.67% stake to XRG.

Macquarie said, “This could take XRG to 33.3%, and it could achieve a similar interest in Browse LNG by buying stakes off existing partners.” The firm added, “This would reduce Woodside’s gearing and project equity further, during a capital intensive growth phase.” Macquarie’s price target for Woodside was A$32.60 a share, including A$1.19 a share for its 50% North West Shelf stake, or US$1.60 billion. The firm said the Shell sale to XRG implied a US$4.35 billion valuation for Woodside’s stake. Macquarie had a neutral rating on Woodside, which was due to hold its investor day tomorrow. Woodside ended Tuesday at A$32.24.

TransAlta executives said Alberta was positioning as a building ground for data centers while other parts of North America were hitting a pause. During a conference call, executives told analysts that demand for power was not abating even with moratoria on data centers in Texas, Pennsylvania and New York. The company said there was strong policy support for developments from the Alberta government and the power industry regulator. Executives added that the province had been deliberate and focused on ensuring reliability and affordability were not compromised for Albertans.

TransAlta is mothballing aging power-generating units in Alberta but is holding the assets in reserve in anticipation that new data centers will continue to drive up demand. This week, the company notified the regulator that it was mothballing Battle River 4, which began commercial operation in 1975, and Battle River 5, which began in 1981, while extending the outage at Sundance 6. CEO Joel Hunter told investors the decision was purely economic and maintained the long-term option on the assets as load increased with the arrival of data centers. In February, TransAlta signed an MoU with Bookfield and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board to advance data-center development in Alberta.

RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote that Drax’s appointment of Brookfield and Radiant as partners in an AI data center in the north of England was positive given the parties’ strong infrastructure reputation. They said the 20 billion pound investment was a strong signal to the U.K. government about the project’s potential positive impact on the region. RBC wrote, “We continue to see Drax in a unique position whereby the site has material under-utilized capacity which can be used for a data centre with no detrimental cost impact on the wider grid.” RBC had an outperform rating on Drax and a 10.50 pound target price. Shares in Drax were up 6.9% at 864.50 pence.

The roundup also reported China market figures, with the Shenzhen Composite Index closing 3.7% higher and the ChiNext Price Index rising 6.4%.