Oil futures swing on Iran diplomacy, Saudi pipeline restart
The U.S. clean-energy industry shed nearly 37,000 jobs in 2025, its first contraction in four years, according to data published Tuesday by E2, a coalition of business leaders, investors and professionals that describes itself as nonpartisan and advocates for clean energy.
E2 said the loss spanned 35 states and reached every one of the sector’s largest subsectors: energy efficiency, renewable power and clean vehicles. Only energy storage, grid modernization and biofuels “posted slight increases in new jobs,” the group said.
The contraction was heavily concentrated in California, which alone shed almost 21,000 positions, E2 reported. Florida posted the largest state-level gain at roughly 3,800 jobs, the data showed.
Even after the declines, E2 estimated the clean-energy sector employs about 3.5 million U.S. workers — the largest head count in the country’s broader energy industry, compared with 958,000 it counted for oil-and-gas.
Oil markets, meanwhile, swung through Tuesday’s session as traders weighed a possible restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline against conflicting signals on U.S.-Iran diplomacy. Front-month Brent settled down 1.1% at $99.25 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate for October went off the board at $94.59, down 1.2%, and the more-active November contract fell 2% to $90.52 — extending WTI’s losing streak to five sessions.
Saudi state-controlled Aramco has run tests on the East-West pipeline, which was closed after an attack earlier in September, and flows could be restored as soon as this week, The Wall Street Journal reported. The prospect of restored Saudi supply, combined with continuing shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and signs of progress toward U.S.-Iran talks, “is all helping to bring oil prices down,” said Roukaya Ibrahim of BCA Research.
Diplomacy-watchers were also digesting conflicting accounts about the strait. Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported that Iran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz if the United States lifts its blockade, a story later disputed by Iran’s Fars News Agency, which cited unnamed sources denying the proposal. ANZ Research analysts said markets would closely watch negotiations for signs the waterway might reopen.
President Trump told reporters on Tuesday that U.S. and Iranian delegations had “a very good meeting,” according to The Wall Street Journal.
Fitch Ratings, in a separate report on Tuesday, raised its 2027 forecast for crude to $70 a barrel from $65, citing the “longer-than-anticipated Middle East conflict” and its effect on the geopolitical risk premium. Analysts Brian Coulton and Alex Muscatelli acknowledged “a high level of uncertainty” around the projections, and said supply-and-demand fundamentals could play a larger role if a U.S.-Iran deal emerges in the first quarter of 2027. Fitch expects the oil market to return to a “substantial surplus” in 2027; its upside scenario put oil at $85 a barrel next year, while its downside put it at $55.
Ritterbusch & Associates noted that Trump has said he expects a deal with Iran after the midterm elections and has repeatedly threatened to “annihilate” the country. “Such statements do little to sway us from a longer-term bullish stance,” the firm said.
Separately, CIMB Securities analyst Choong Chen Foong said Tenaga Nasional expects the Malaysian government’s interim electricity subsidy for September through December to be a one-off cost. The subsidy stems from the government’s decision to raise the threshold for electricity charges to 800 kilowatt-hours a month from 600 kWh for the four months. The cost to the utility is estimated at up to 150 million ringgit, depending on fuel prices and currency moves, Foong said. CIMB kept its buy rating on Tenaga with a target price of 15.90 ringgit; the shares were 0.3% lower at 13.06 ringgit.