Zelenskyy expects more support from the incoming Democratic Congress
Divergent calculations after the election
The U.S. midterm results were closely followed overseas, and NPR correspondents Charles Maynes in Moscow and Jennifer Pak in Beijing described different calculations under the same incoming political constraint: a Democratic-controlled Congress will be seated in January. Maynes said there is broad acknowledgment that Trump will face more scrutiny from Democrats, including over his dealings with Russia when it comes to Ukraine. Pak said China faces a separate question about whether any deal with Trump will stick, because tougher policy toward China has become a bipartisan issue in Washington.
For Moscow, the new calendar creates both pressure and opportunity. President Vladimir Putin has not spoken directly about the midterm results, Maynes said, but the wider Kremlin approach is to continue actively engaging Trump. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this week that Russia is “sincerely counting on Trump to continue peace efforts in Ukraine” and suggested those efforts had already made some progress, pointing to Melania Trump’s humanitarian work as an example. Maynes noted separately that U.S.-led trilateral talks were set to take place in Abu Dhabi next week.
Sergei Ryabkov, a senior Russian diplomat and deputy foreign minister, said Moscow had long viewed Democrats as holding “intensely negative views” of Russia, making it clear that Moscow would rather deal with Trump. Host Ayesha Rascoe said the window for doing so was closing, and Maynes agreed, saying, “But, of course, the clock’s ticking.” Maynes said Trump’s recent negotiations with Moscow have rested on the idea that offering sanctions relief, for example, could unlock Russian concessions over Ukraine. He left open whether that was a good bet and noted the administration would argue it was working.
The midterm result could nevertheless prompt Moscow to seek a more favorable deal with Trump before the new Congress is seated in January, Maynes said, potentially opening Russia to negotiations even as the clock continued to tick.
Ukraine is, in Maynes’s description, the flip side of the Russian calculus: the country is counting the days until the new Democratic-controlled Congress arrives, because the incoming lawmakers are seen as more sympathetic to Ukraine. In an interview with Jake Tapper on CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “They don’t try to balance between us and Russia. They don’t afraid to say that Russia is aggressor. They don’t want to give our land to Putin. And I think that based on such things, of course, we count on even more support.”
Maynes said Zelenskyy was being careful not to antagonize Trump outright, because Trump could make life very difficult for Ukrainians even while Democrats controlled Congress.
China’s official reaction has been quite measured, Pak said, because — like President Putin — Chinese leader Xi Jinping is not going anywhere. Pak said the larger question is whether any deal with Trump will really stick, given that Xi is expected to seek a fourth term next year and that being tougher on China has become a bipartisan issue in Washington; she said that question is “up in the air.” China’s foreign ministry called its approach “business as usual” and said China was willing to work with the United States to uphold what Trump and Xi had agreed at their two earlier summits this year.
Pak explained that the two leaders’ understanding was called “constructive strategic stability.” The term acknowledges that the United States and China will continue to compete but that there should be some predictability or stability in the relationship.
Trade and stability in the Trump-Xi agenda
Trump and Xi are expected to meet later this month in China, but the agenda is not yet known, Pak said. She described the meeting as essentially a trust-building exercise. Despite the warmth and pleasantries exchanged between the leaders, the U.S. administration has continually added more Chinese firms and individuals to blacklists between the summits and has banned Chinese humanoid robots and drones from being imported into the United States. China, according to the United States, continues to restrict the flow of rare earth to the United States and has not really followed through on purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, Pak said. Following through on the promises made at the last two summits is essentially the goal.
Pak said NPR had heard that negotiators had made progress on lowering tariffs on $60 billion worth of goods flowing between the two countries. They have identified which items are non-sensitive, Pak said, work that might be easier to push through because the cost of living became a key issue in the midterms. The harder subjects include Chinese investment in the United States, the American stance on Taiwan and guardrails on AI. Chinese analysts Pak spoke with said the summits are meant to build mutual trust because there is so little mutual trust between the United States and China right now.
Putin talks and the stakes for Ukraine and Europe
President Putin could join Trump and Xi for the talks, and Maynes said that could be hugely significant, at least for Ukraine. A few days before the NPR discussion, Trump met at the White House with Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev. After that meeting, Trump said the United States and Russia were closing in on a peace deal for Ukraine that could also affect all of Europe. In audio played on the program, Trump said, “It’s going to be a big, beautiful agreement, and everyone’s going to be thrilled.”
Maynes said Trump has repeatedly overstated his ability to end the war. He said the idea that Trump and Putin, perhaps with input from Xi, could negotiate a grand superpower bargain while cutting Ukraine and Europe out of the loop has been a fear that has dogged Trump’s peace efforts since he returned to office. Maynes said the midterm results and the time remaining in Trump’s term make it even harder to imagine Ukraine or Europe accepting those terms.
At the time of the discussion, the principal events were still ahead: the Abu Dhabi talks were set for next week, the Trump-Xi meeting was expected later this month, and Putin’s participation remained conditional. The White House meeting with Dmitriev had taken place, but Trump’s statement that the parties were closing in on a deal did not mark a completed peace agreement.