APEC summit in Shenzhen emerges as proposed venue for trilateral talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a trilateral summit with President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine on terms that would favor Moscow, according to people familiar with the discussions. The plan, which would exclude Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, represents an effort by Putin to capitalize on warming ties between Moscow and Washington that have alarmed Ukraine and its allies in Washington and Europe.

Putin floated the idea in an Oct. 9 phone call with Trump, said a former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the matter. That conversation also produced a separate deal under which the United States will buy Russian diesel fuel and facilitate its sale on the global market.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that discussions were taking place over a potential meeting. “There is no clear understanding yet regarding the meeting itself or its potential agenda, although all three parties acknowledge the hypothetical possibility of such a meeting taking place,” Peskov told The Wall Street Journal.

The Kremlin has suggested holding the trilateral dialogue on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, scheduled for Nov. 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, the people familiar with the discussions said. Russian officials proposed the idea to Beijing through diplomatic channels, and the Chinese side has indicated it would not object if Trump agrees to attend, said other people close to recent discussions between Moscow and Beijing.

A senior U.S. official said Trump has not agreed to a summit. The official added that the president could be receptive to the idea, given his desire to fulfill a campaign promise to settle the war. Trump had said the conflict would be finished on “day one” of his new term; he is now approaching nearly two years in office.

The White House declined to comment. The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

A three-way dialogue held on Chinese soil would be a significant step for Xi in his efforts to elevate China as a diplomatic power broker, according to analysts who study China. “China wants to be seen as the pivot of the great powers, and potentially as a mediator between the U.S. and Russia,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank.

A potential summit without Zelensky’s involvement would be unprecedented and send alarm bells ringing in European capitals and beyond. The proposed format would exclude Europe, which the Kremlin sees as its main obstacle to clinching victory in Ukraine.

Putin has proposed a trilateral summit to both Trump and Xi on previous occasions, the former Russian intelligence officer said. This time, however, the proposal comes during a reversal of Moscow’s fortunes with Washington.

Trump recently struck a deal with Putin to import Russian diesel in a bid to lower fuel prices that have slowed the U.S. economy and complicated Republican prospects ahead of the midterm elections. On Friday, Trump halted implementation of sanctions that were to be imposed on Russia under a bipartisan bill he signed last month, drawing criticism from lawmakers including some of his allies. The senior White House official said Trump made the decisions after seeing few other good options to lower prices. The Wall Street Journal reported that the consensus among energy experts is that the Iran war is the primary cause of rising diesel prices and that the amount of fuel Russia has promised to sell would not move the market much.

Trump has expressed renewed frustration with Zelensky, saying the Ukrainian leader must stop strikes on Russian refineries and suggesting that Ukraine needs a new president. In a post on Truth Social on Sunday, Trump accused Zelensky of targeting Russian diesel refineries and wrote that Zelensky “doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did.” Trump said he was holding off on imposing sanctions because he did not want to drive Russia away from the bargaining table. “I WANT THIS WAR END!” he wrote.

The former Russian intelligence officer said Putin has broad, if unrealistic, ambitions for the trilateral as a “second Yalta summit” that would divide the globe into spheres of influence. Even if Xi and Trump are unlikely to agree to that framing, the image of the American, Russian and Chinese leaders negotiating the fate of one nation would carry significant consequences. In Taipei, the prospect could reinforce fears that Taiwan’s own future might one day be addressed in a similar forum, particularly as Beijing has not renounced the use of force to bring the self-governing democratic island under its control.

Chinese officials have expressed concerns about allowing a geopolitical side show to overshadow their designs to use APEC as a showcase of China’s regional role, said some of the people close to the discussions. Xi is attempting to balance continuing support for Putin against maintaining China’s economic ties with Europe, those people said. A trilateral meeting on Ukraine could risk drawing China more directly into the conflict and provoke a backlash from European capitals already wary of Beijing’s tilt toward Moscow.